Regular season ·

Stanford beat Louisville

No. 22 Louisville6-435
Stanford3-738Final
Sat, Nov 16 · Stanford Stadium · Crowd 18,685 · 59°, cloudyACC Network

Records are after this game. Rankings are the AP poll before it.

Stanford had a 1 percent chance to win with 9:44 left in the 4th quarter, by our win chance curve, and won 38-35, November 16, 2024.

How the game turned

Stanford aheadLouisville aheadBiggest swingLow: 1%
123

Q4 0:00 Stanford 38, Louisville 35

Stanford 100% to win

Kenney 52-yd field goal, Stanford wins it 38-35

Big moments

  1. 1Q1 7:59 · Stanford 3, Louisville 0Kenney 41-yd field goal, Stanford goes ahead 3-0
  2. 2Q2 4:06 · Stanford 13, Louisville 14Stanford's win chance fell from 14% to 11%.Watson 5-yd TD run, Louisville goes ahead 14-13
  3. 3Q4 0:00 · Stanford 38, Louisville 35Stanford's win chance rose from 20% to 100%.Kenney 52-yd field goal, Stanford wins it 38-35

Stanford's lowest chance to win was 1 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.

The biggest swing

With 0:00 left in the 4th quarter, Stanford's chance to win went from 20 percent to 99 percent when Stanford kicked a field goal.

The score went from Stanford 35, Louisville 35 to Stanford 38, Louisville 35.

The play: Kenney 52-yd field goal, Stanford wins it 38-35.

What happened next

  1. Stanford's next game: L 21-24 at California, Nov 23

    7 days later

  2. Louisville's next game: W 37-9 vs Pittsburgh, Nov 23

    7 days later

Related pages

Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.

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