Next game: at Georgia Tech
Louisville’s best edge on Georgia Tech is running
Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.
Louisville offense against Georgia Tech defense
Georgia Tech offense against Louisville defense
Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.
Key stats
Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.
All 98 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Surgeon · +0.47 EPA/play | 3 | 8 | 141 / 208 | 67.8 | 2094 #18 FBS | 10.1 | 12 #53 FBS | 3 | 168.5 | 80 | 75.6 | 9.5 | 5.9 | |
Yards by week → Pocket surgeonHigh-percentage passer who protects the ball. Loses the matchup on improvisation. In the Heisman race — our Heisman model ranks this player #22 right now. This week's matchup — QB Kienholz picks you apart underneath and protects the ball. Edwards is the one who operates within the system without forcing anything. Season receipt Completion %68.1% 79th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Yards / attempt10.2 98th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Lincoln Kienholz's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Speed Merchant · +0.27 EPA/play | 1 | 8 | 92 | 707 #29 FBS | 7.7 | 7 #36 FBS | 97 | 25.6 | 18.9 | |
Yards by week → Speed merchant· Boom-or-bustCuts upfield fast. Designed to find the crease, not run through the line. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine Starter — 92 carries and 15 catches in 8 games, about as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Brown hits the crease and outruns the angle. June is the one who wears you down at the goal line. Season receipt Yards / carry7.9 99th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate7.6% 86th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Isaac Brown's full player page | ||||||||||
| Speed Merchant · +0.37 EPA/play | 5 | 7 | 58 | 467 | 8.1 | 5 | 58 | 16.9 | 28.8 | |
Yards by week → Speed merchantCuts upfield fast. Designed to find the crease, not run through the line. 58 carries and 3 catches in 7 games. About as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Brown hits the crease and outruns the angle. June is the one who wears you down at the goal line. Season receipt View Keyjuan Brown's full player pageYards / carry8.2 100th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate8.6% 92th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.75 EPA/play | — | 8 | 40 | 633 #35 FBS | 15.8 | 2 | 62 | |
Yards by week → Slot technicianRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. Impact starter — 40 catches and 10 carries in 8 games, more catches a game than most FBS receivers who play every week. This week's matchup — WR Richardson wins underneath on volume and route precision. Shipp is the one who wins underneath on volume and route precision. Season receipt Reception volume40 89th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.8 80th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Tre Richardson's full player page | ||||||||
| Deep Threat · +0.62 EPA/play | 7 | 7 | 25 | 513 #66 FBS | 20.5 | 4 #70 FBS | 61 | |
Yards by week → Deep threat· Money-downStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. lives on the sticks and moves the chains 25 catches in 7 games. About as many catches a game as a typical FBS receiver who plays every week. This week's matchup — WR McCoy beats you over the top. Shipp is the one who wins underneath on volume and route precision. Season receipt Yards / reception19.7 96th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate16.0% 86th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Lawayne McCoy's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.61 EPA/play | 2 | 8 | 31 | 370 | 11.9 | 1 | 35 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 31 catches in 8 games. About as many catches a game as a typical FBS receiver who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 279 of 467 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Treyshun Hurry's full player page | ||||||||
| Move TE · +0.96 EPA/play | 88 | 8 | 17 | 293 | 17.2 | 3 | 69 | |
Yards by week → Move TELined up out wide as often as inline. Creates mismatches downfield. 17 catches in 8 games. Fewer catches a game than most FBS tight ends who play every week. This week's matchup — TE Skinner creates mismatches lined up all over the formation. Easter is the one who shows up in the passing game from any alignment. Season receipt Yards / reception17.0 95th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions EPA / play (adj)1.0 91th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jaleel Skinner's full player page | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two-Gap Base | 50 | 8 | 39 | 15 | 5.5 | 4.5 #60 FBS | 5 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. Impact starter — 39 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than nearly every FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 276 of 606 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Clev Lubin's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 2 | 6 | 23 | 5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 1 |
Nose anchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 23 tackles in 6 games. More tackles a game than most FBS defensive linemen who play every week. 130 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight305 lb 76th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Demeco Kennedy's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 3 | 8 | 20 | 12 | 6.5 | 5.5 #29 FBS | 2 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 20 tackles in 8 games. Fewer tackles a game than most FBS defensive linemen who play every week. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate32.5% 94th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Tyler Thompson's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 99 | 6 | 17 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 2 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate29.4% 90th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jerod Smith II's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 90 | 7 | 16 | 7 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 276 of 606 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman View Daylen Russell's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 17 | 6 | 16 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate18.8% 63th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Adonijah Green's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 19 | 6 | 15 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 276 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate0.0% bottom 9th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Micah Carter's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 95 | 6 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Nose anchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 130 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight310 lb 82th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Joshua Donald's full player page | |||||||
| 93 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | |
| 96 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 40 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 11 | 8 | 57 | 27 | 30 | 1.5 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Starter — 57 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than most FBS linebackers who play every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 330 of 564 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman · 4-star, 2023 class View T.J. Capers's full player page | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 6 | 8 | 56 | 17 | 39 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 5 | 1 |
Coverage ’backerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. Starter — 56 tackles in 8 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. 89 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate8.9% 96th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume56 85th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Stanquan Clark's full player page | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 23 | 8 | 37 | 17 | 20 | 3 | 2.5 | 4 | 0 |
Coverage ’backerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. 37 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. 89 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate10.8% 99th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate6.8% 80th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Benjamin Perry's full player page | |||||||||
| 38 | 5 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 43 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 52 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rover | 10 | 8 | 53 | 4 | 5 #1 FBS | 2 | 0 |
RoverHits like a linebacker and still takes the ball away. Impact starter — 53 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than nearly every FBS defensive back who plays every week. 33 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate7.5% bottom 49th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Kaleb Beasley's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 4 | 7 | 36 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 36 tackles in 7 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman View Travaris Banks's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 5 | 6 | 32 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 32 tackles in 6 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 358 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate3.1% bottom 27th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Koen Entringer's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 13 | 7 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 116 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate22.7% 98th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Tayon Holloway's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 29 | 7 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 358 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate0.0% bottom 15th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Blake Ruffin's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 25 | 8 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 116 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate17.6% 90th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Brycen Scott's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 1 | 5 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 116 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate25.0% 99th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Jabari Mack's full player page | |||||||
| Press Corner | 12 | 6 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Press cornerLong and physical; jams receivers off their route at the line. 34 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Height6'3" 96th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View DJ Waller Jr.'s full player page | |||||||
| 9 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big Leg | 35 | 8 | 8/11 | 72.7 | 36/39 | 60 | 54 |
| 98 | 1 | 0/1 | 0 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 91 | 8 | 27 | 1082 | 40.1 | 59 | 4 | 1 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Speed Merchant · +0.27 EPA/play | 1 | 8 | 8 | 190 | 23.8 | 0 | 71 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0.98 EPA/play | 14 | 6 | 7 | 86 | 12.3 | 0 | 33 |
Biggest plays from Louisville’s games
Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in Louisville’s games this season, whoever made them.
Q4, 12:27 · Louisville down 7, ties itIsaac Brown runs 70 yards for a touchdownLouisville at NC State, week 5Q4, 12:27 · Louisville 28, NC State 287070-yard touchdown run7070-yard touchdown run70-yard touchdown runI.Brown rush middle for 70 yards gain to the NCSU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
- Q4, 10:02 · Louisville down 3, takes the leadKeyjuan Brown runs 53 yards for a touchdownSMU at Louisville, week 3Q4, 10:02 · Louisville 35, SMU 315353-yard touchdown run5353-yard touchdown run53-yard touchdown runK.Brown rush middle for 53 yards gain to the SMU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
- Q3, 14:17 · Louisville down 3, takes the leadKeyjuan Brown runs 58 yards for a touchdownSMU at Louisville, week 3Q3, 14:17 · Louisville 21, SMU 175858-yard touchdown run5858-yard touchdown run58-yard touchdown runK.Brown rush middle for 58 yards gain to the SMU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
Q4, 11:33 · SMU down 4, takes the leadKendrick Raphael runs 12 yards for a touchdownSMU at Louisville, week 3Q4, 11:33 · SMU 31, Louisville 28▲22%SMU’s chance to win, 32% to 54%▲22%SMU’s chance to win, 32% to 54%K.Raphael rush middle for 12 yards gain to the LOU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play- Q3, 8:05 · Louisville down 13Lincoln Kienholz finds Tre Richardson for a 38-yard touchdownLouisville at NC State, week 5Q3, 8:05 · Louisville 14, NC State 20Tre Richardson's first 100-yard receiving game of 2026Tre Richardson's first 100-yard receiving game of 2026L.Kienholz pass complete short right to T.Richardson caught at NCSU35, for 38 yards to the NCSU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
- Q2, 0:57 · Louisville down 10Lincoln Kienholz finds Jaleel Skinner for a 61-yard touchdownWake Forest at Louisville, week 4Q2, 0:57 · Louisville 21, Wake Forest 246161-yard touchdown pass6161-yard touchdown pass61-yard touchdown passL.Kienholz pass complete deep left to J.Skinner caught at WFU40, for 61 yards to the WFU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner was inbounds". CALL UPHELD, kick good▶Watch from this play
How scary each game got
Louisville lost at Ole Miss after being 87% to win; the closest win was against Florida State, down to 11%
Tap a game for its score and win chances.
Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave Louisville during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.
Stat leaders
2026 stat leaders · Louisville
through 8 games
2026 stat leaders · LouisvilleT.J. Capers leads Louisville with 57 tackles through 8 games.
Roster
Roster
2026+19 more
Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back
How they play
Louisville fields an elite offense behind a solid defense, though it gives up the big play.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Player percentiles
Louisville reads strongest in explosive plays (top 3%) and rushing EPA (top 3%); the crux lives in explosive plays allowed, where Louisville sits at the 21st percentile.
Offense · strengths lead
Defense · higher bar = harder to play against
Hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents
Louisville is worth +6.1 points more at home than on the road.
Top third of FBS, 82nd percentile of 133 programs
61% at home, 41% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (31-20 home, 16-23 away). Interval ±4.1.
The stadium and how the home edge is measured
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, Louisville has beaten the number by 6.9 points more at home than away over 96 games. That is outside the ±6.3 that many games can resolve, so this is one of the few buildings where the results say something the flat number does not.
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium seats 60,000 and has averaged 81% full (48,511, 32 games reported). Visitors cover a median 374 miles to get here since 2018 — 58th-shortest of 135 FBS venues, inside the ordinary range. For the home side it is genuinely home ground: 26% of the 2026 roster (27 of 102 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 58 home games since 2018.
More in this tab
How they play
Usage splits
How the players get used
From the 2025 season's play-by-play
- Deep threatChris Bell is used almost exclusively underneath: a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
Position battles
RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
Isaac Brown and Keyjuan Brown split the carries (88/144 vs 56/144) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Tre Richardson (WR) and Jaleel Skinner (TE) split the targets (53/60 vs 7/60) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Scheme claims
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How Louisville actually scores
94th percentile quality, 19th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 76th | 3rd |
| Akron | 9th | 90th |
| Alabama | 82nd | 22nd |
| App State | 41st | 48th |
| Arizona | 91st | 16th |
| Arizona State | 20th | 83rd |
| Arkansas | 7th | 93rd |
| Arkansas State | 60th | 32nd |
| Army | 95th | 10th |
| Auburn | 34th | 59th |
| BYU | 83rd | 17th |
| Ball State | 32nd | 72nd |
| Baylor | 36th | 63rd |
| Boise State | 96th | 4th |
| Boston College | 20th | 80th |
| Buffalo | 8th | 88th |
| Central Michigan | 6th | 96th |
| Cincinnati | 88th | 15th |
| Clemson | 10th | 92nd |
| Coastal Carolina | 49th | 57th |
| Colorado | 15th | 86th |
| Colorado State | 88th | 30th |
| Delaware | 63rd | 40th |
| Duke | 74th | 8th |
| East Carolina | 24th | 77th |
| Eastern Michigan | 14th | 80th |
| Florida | 75th | 37th |
| Florida Atlantic | 72nd | 25th |
| Florida International | 2nd | 98th |
| Florida State | 64th | 44th |
| Fresno State | 56th | 52nd |
| Georgia | 92nd | 11th |
| Georgia Southern | 52nd | 40th |
| Georgia State | 77th | 36th |
| Georgia Tech | 30th | 70th |
| Hawai'i | 12th | 88th |
| Houston | 89th | 2nd |
| Illinois | 70th | 38th |
| Indiana | 85th | 18th |
| Iowa | 52nd | 53rd |
| Iowa State | 43rd | 62nd |
| Jacksonville State | 62nd | 41st |
| James Madison | 58th | 35th |
| Kansas | 28th | 66th |
| Kansas State | 48th | 44th |
| Kennesaw State | 23rd | 79th |
| Kentucky | 71st | 21st |
| LSU | 86th | 9th |
| Liberty | 78th | 29th |
| Louisiana | 27th | 69th |
| Louisiana Tech | 60th | 47th |
| Louisville | 94th | 19th |
| Marshall | 36th | 61st |
| Maryland | 17th | 85th |
| Massachusetts | 38th | 60th |
| Memphis | 87th | 20th |
| Miami | 100th | 0th |
| Miami (OH) | 68th | 31st |
| Michigan | 25th | 71st |
| Middle Tennessee | 37th | 60th |
| Minnesota | 4th | 95th |
| Mississippi State | 35th | 65th |
| Missouri | 54th | 49th |
| Missouri State | 40th | 64th |
| NC State | 69th | 28th |
| Navy | 57th | 51st |
| Nebraska | 59th | 32nd |
| Nevada | 1st | 99th |
| New Mexico | 39th | 68th |
| North Carolina | 48th | 45th |
| North Dakota State | 31st | 64th |
| North Texas | 99th | 1st |
| Northern Illinois | 12th | 89th |
| Northwestern | 93rd | 6th |
| Notre Dame | 97th | 5th |
| Ohio | 67th | 43rd |
| Ohio State | 79th | 23rd |
| Oklahoma State | 76th | 14th |
| Ole Miss | 80th | 8th |
| Oregon | 28th | 72nd |
| Oregon State | 92nd | 13th |
| Penn State | 47th | 48th |
| Pittsburgh | 44th | 50th |
| Purdue | 65th | 34th |
| Rice | 18th | 87th |
| Rutgers | 32nd | 76th |
| SMU | 81st | 16th |
| San Diego State | 5th | 94th |
| San José State | 13th | 84th |
| South Alabama | 64th | 27th |
| South Carolina | 55th | 54th |
| South Florida | 42nd | 56th |
| Southern Miss | 3rd | 97th |
| Stanford | 53rd | 55th |
| Syracuse | 24th | 74th |
| TCU | 21st | 75th |
| Temple | 56th | 56th |
| Tennessee | 45th | 42nd |
| Texas | 11th | 91st |
| Texas A&M | 16th | 78th |
| Texas State | 90th | 12th |
| Texas Tech | 50th | 46th |
| Toledo | 84th | 24th |
| Troy | 8th | 92nd |
| Tulane | 33rd | 73rd |
| Tulsa | 68th | 28th |
| UAB | 16th | 81st |
| UCF | 19th | 82nd |
| UCLA | 61st | 36th |
| UConn | 84th | 26th |
| UNLV | 44th | 67th |
| USC | 80th | 12th |
| UTSA | 72nd | 20th |
| Utah | 96th | 7th |
| Utah State | 0th | 100th |
| Vanderbilt | 26th | 76th |
| Virginia | 51st | 39th |
| Virginia Tech | 66th | 33rd |
| Wake Forest | 98th | 4th |
| Washington | 40th | 58th |
| West Virginia | 73rd | 24th |
| Western Kentucky | 4th | 96th |
| Western Michigan | 29th | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 22nd | 84th |
| Wyoming | 46th | 52nd |
Louisville’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 99th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 97th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Louisville hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
95th percentile success on standard downs, 72nd on passing downs — a 23-point gap between the two.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 98th | 23rd |
| Akron | 58th | 34th |
| Alabama | 77th | 57th |
| App State | 33rd | 49th |
| Arizona | 76th | 94th |
| Arizona State | 38th | 61st |
| Arkansas | 71st | 24th |
| Arkansas State | 85th | 59th |
| Army | 93rd | 58th |
| Auburn | 14th | 69th |
| BYU | 86th | 35th |
| Ball State | 31st | 52nd |
| Baylor | 15th | 46th |
| Boise State | 77th | 92nd |
| Boston College | 63rd | 28th |
| Bowling Green | 43rd | 21st |
| Buffalo | 9th | 11th |
| California | 11th | 20th |
| Central Michigan | 36th | 9th |
| Charlotte | 18th | 41st |
| Cincinnati | 68th | 83rd |
| Clemson | 7th | 39th |
| Coastal Carolina | 23rd | 64th |
| Colorado | 16th | 65th |
| Colorado State | 66th | 95th |
| Delaware | 59th | 64th |
| Duke | 21st | 67th |
| East Carolina | 37th | 19th |
| Eastern Michigan | 16th | 30th |
| Florida | 61st | 70th |
| Florida Atlantic | 67th | 87th |
| Florida International | 20th | 53rd |
| Florida State | 30th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 25th | 84th |
| Gardner-Webb | 5th | 23rd |
| Georgia | 98th | 89th |
| Georgia Southern | 60th | 71st |
| Georgia State | 68th | 66th |
| Georgia Tech | 53rd | 40th |
| Hawai'i | 48th | 29th |
| Houston | 87th | 99th |
| Illinois | 73rd | 91st |
| Indiana | 55th | 44th |
| Iowa | 79th | 13th |
| Iowa State | 18th | 31st |
| Jacksonville State | 82nd | 80th |
| James Madison | 45th | 77th |
| Kansas | 52nd | 18th |
| Kansas State | 64th | 68th |
| Kennesaw State | 61st | 16th |
| Kent State | 5th | 21st |
| Kentucky | 90th | 51st |
| LSU | 86th | 98th |
| Liberty | 93rd | 78th |
| Louisiana | 36th | 66th |
| Louisiana Tech | 26th | 79th |
| Louisville | 95th | 72nd |
| Maine | 0th | 86th |
| Marshall | 69th | 32nd |
| Maryland | 34th | 26th |
| Massachusetts | 35th | 38th |
| Memphis | 92nd | 93rd |
| Mercyhurst | 2nd | 34th |
| Miami | 99th | 95th |
| Miami (OH) | 50th | 43rd |
| Michigan | 10th | 89th |
| Michigan State | 23rd | 55th |
| Middle Tennessee | 27th | 64th |
| Minnesota | 32nd | 4th |
| Mississippi State | 66th | 59th |
| Missouri | 34th | 41st |
| Missouri State | 52nd | 30th |
| NC State | 62nd | 77th |
| Navy | 89th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 46th | 85th |
| Nevada | 28th | 27th |
| New Mexico | 55th | 48th |
| New Mexico State | 14th | 36th |
| Norfolk State | 7th | 0th |
| North Carolina | 89th | 73rd |
| North Dakota State | 30th | 45th |
| North Texas | 95th | 84th |
| Northern Illinois | 51st | 14th |
| Northwestern | 88th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 100th | 43rd |
| Ohio | 82nd | 42nd |
| Ohio State | 84th | 80th |
| Oklahoma | 4th | 50th |
| Oklahoma State | 96th | 86th |
| Old Dominion | 1st | 36th |
| Ole Miss | 81st | 94th |
| Oregon | 39th | 26th |
| Oregon State | 97th | 70th |
| Penn State | 20th | 47th |
| Pittsburgh | 65th | 50th |
| Purdue | 57th | 82nd |
| Rice | 59th | 14th |
| Robert Morris | 2nd | 5th |
| Rutgers | 42nd | 81st |
| SMU | 91st | 82nd |
| Sacramento State | 13th | 6th |
| Sam Houston | 11th | 37th |
| San Diego State | 8th | 54th |
| San José State | 17th | 2nd |
| South Alabama | 44th | 74th |
| South Carolina | 70th | 56th |
| South Florida | 84th | 57th |
| Southern Miss | 48th | 7th |
| Stanford | 40th | 9th |
| Syracuse | 57th | 39th |
| TCU | 70th | 10th |
| Temple | 50th | 68th |
| Tennessee | 75th | 12th |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 46th | 55th |
| Texas State | 74th | 100th |
| Texas Tech | 64th | 76th |
| Toledo | 73rd | 52nd |
| Troy | 39th | 15th |
| Tulane | 12th | 8th |
| Tulsa | 49th | 7th |
| UAB | 24th | 62nd |
| UCF | 29th | 45th |
| UCLA | 80th | 60th |
| UConn | 72nd | 73rd |
| UL Monroe | 47th | 11th |
| UNLV | 41st | 19th |
| USC | 79th | 97th |
| UT Martin | 6th | 3rd |
| UTEP | 9th | 1st |
| UTSA | 91st | 33rd |
| Utah | 94th | 98th |
| Utah State | 3rd | 76th |
| Vanderbilt | 41st | 32nd |
| Virginia | 83rd | 2nd |
| Virginia Tech | 43rd | 91st |
| Wake Forest | 75th | 96th |
| Washington | 56th | 16th |
| Washington State | 19th | 5th |
| West Virginia | 54th | 75th |
| Western Kentucky | 22nd | 25th |
| Western Michigan | 32nd | 27th |
| Wisconsin | 25th | 22nd |
| Wyoming | 78th | 48th |
Louisville by half
1st-half offense ranks 81st percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 98th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
How much of Louisville’s number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.34; 93rd percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.11. The widest gap came in week 3: 0.49 raw vs. 0.08 adjusted.
Tendency drift
How Louisville’s current staff calls plays, year over year
Pass defense by zone
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Louisville’s passing game completes a completion rate above the FBS mean (69.8% vs 67.0% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 178-play sample) — mid-pack, 114 of 136 qualifying offenses.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Louisville’s defense allows a completion rate below the FBS mean (65.7% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 209-play sample) — mid-pack, 54 of 137 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Havoc & trenches
Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.
Turnover luck
67% recovery rate on the fumbles they've forced — well above the ~48% league baseline.
6 of 9 forced fumbles recovered; 7 of 11 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2026 only.
Takeaways
19% of tipped/broken-up passes have turned into picks — about the ~18% league average.
8 interceptions of 42 disrupted passes (34 deflected, 8 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
58 penalties committed, 55 drawn on opponents — ceding 54 yards of field position.
576 penalty yards committed vs. 522 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Ratings and comparisons
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · Louisville
Most similar programs · LouisvilleReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Weather
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium, Louisville, KY
Usual during the game around Nov 21: 49°, between 40° and 60° in about 7 in 10 games (28 games since 2016).
Road games since 2016: the middle game was 64°, and 8 in 10 ran between 50° and 77° (45 of 48 road games, at stadiums we cover).
What a usual Saturday feels like here, by kickoff time
Airport readings near each stadium during the game, not on the field. How we measure
Weather observations: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University. Rain: NOAA MRMS radar and CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges (CC BY 4.0). Game data: CollegeFootballData.com.