UT Permian Basin · Next-Season Outcome Band
Fanbase Health Index · UT Permian Basin · low confidence
D2 Program Prestige · UT Permian Basin2025 Program-Record 11 Wins
11–3 overall, 7–2 LSC; first-ever winning season of this magnitude
UT Permian Basin11-3Hope-Doping·Offseason
UT Permian Basin is the Odessa Falcons—a young Division II program (LSC since 2016) that just won 11 games, made the playoffs for the first time, and proved that a startup can shock a storied league in one magic season.
Standard GapA program-record 11 wins and the first Division II playoff appearance ev…
Fans here believe uTPB's chip is existential: a five-year-old Division II program proving it belongs in the same league as 80-year-old regional powers. The 2025 playoff run was the first evidence that…
low signal
Approaching
24 days
until kickoff · at UT Rio Grande Valley · Sun Aug 30 · 00:00 UTC
The experience
UT Permian Basin is the Odessa Falcons—a young Division II program (LSC since 2016) that just won 11 games, made the playoffs for the first time, and proved that a startup can shock a storied league in one magic season.
The Falcons bide their time.
UT Permian Basin · Next-Season Outcome Band
Floor / Base / Ceiling
Floor 9-3
Base 11-1
Ceiling 12-0
floor9-3Competitive but likely outside bracket contention.
base11-1Conference title contender. Bracket bid realistic.
ceiling12-0Deep playoff run. Program-defining year.
Variance assumed at ±2 wins from last-season record. Replace with the season-path projection once preview data is built.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Warming
Four of five. The board favors this trend.
Streak L1Last 5 · 4-1Last 10 · 7-3
The forecast
Opens Aug 30
vs UT Rio Grande Valley · away
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
The Pulse on UT Permian Basin
—
The Falcons bide their time.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Camp
Fall camp open — install + scrimmage cycle
ongoing
Kickoff
Season opener in 16 days
kickoff
"Go UT Permian Basin"
— UT Permian Basin fanbase · recurring line
0 mentions · awaiting signal
Fanbase Health Index · UT Permian Basin · low confidence
Growing (73)
DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 11-3 (79% win rate)73
Player stats — 2025 season
No player stats logged for this program yet — stats appear once the season is underway.
UT Permian Basin · 2025 schedule & results11-3Balanced slateAverage opponent win rate 49%.
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 30 | #297 | #278 | — | Central Oklahoma | W 34–14 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 7 | #280 | #368 | — | @Adams State | W 41–7 | 2-0 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 21 | #303 | #363 | — | @Texas A&M-Kingsville | W 43–30 | 3-0 | 1-0 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #304 | #366 | — | Midwestern State | W 37–15 | 4-0 | 2-0 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #302 | #303 | — | @Angelo State | W 28–14 | 5-0 | 3-0 |
| 7 | Oct 11 | #296 | #269 | — | Central Washington | L 14–27 | 5-1 | 3-1 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #287 | #322 | — | @Western Oregon | L 28–31 | 5-2 | 3-2 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #290 | #291 | — | West Texas A&M | W 22–6 | 6-2 | 4-2 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #284 | #449 | — | @Western New Mexico | W 66–7 | 7-2 | 5-2 |
| 11 | Nov 9 | #283 | #391 | — | Eastern New Mexico | W 47–34 | 8-2 | 6-2 |
| 12 | Nov 16 | #286 | #481 | — | Sul Ross State | W 74–10 | 9-2 | 7-2 |
| Bowl Season | ||||||||
| 13 | Nov 22 | #285 | #270 | — | @CSU Pueblo | W 37–24 | 10-2 | 7-2 |
| Conference Championship | ||||||||
| 14 | Nov 29 | #271 | #264 | — | Western Colorado | W 21–15 | 11-2 | 7-2 |
| 15 | Dec 6 | #270 | #264 | — | @Harding University | L 28–34 | 11-3 | 7-2 |
Home-Field Advantage · UT Permian Basin · 2018-present
Above-Average
68% home win rate vs 62% on the road. margin runs +5.2 better at home. Mountaineer Bowl seats 4,000.
Home20-9Away18-11
Venue texture
76°F average kickoff temp; 0% of games had measurable precipitation; 9 mph average wind.
Based on 11 home games with weather data.
D2 Program Prestige · UT Permian Basin
Mid-Major Contender
All-Time Record
38-20
since 2021 · 5 seasons · .655 win rate
HOME
20-9
AWAY
18-11
NEUTRAL
0-0
2020s
Lone Star Standing · 2025
2nd in the Lone Star
UT Permian Basin is 2nd in the Lone Star at 7-2. 1 team above — that's the direct path to the title game.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Central Washington | 9-0 |
| 2 | UT Permian Basin | 7-2 |
| 3 | West Texas A&M | 7-2 |
| 4 | Western Oregon | 7-2 |
| 5 | Texas A&M-Kingsville | 4-5 |
| 6 | Angelo State | 3-5 |
| 7 | Eastern New Mexico | 3-6 |
| 8 | Midwestern State | 3-6 |
| 9 | Western New Mexico | 1-8 |
| 10 | Simon Fraser | 0-0 |
| 11 | Sul Ross State | 0-8 |
Program memory
What this program never forgets
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
2025
First Division II Playoff Appearance
Quarterfinal vs. Harding; lost 28–34; historic first playoff run
Miracle
2025
LSC Second Place
7–2 conference record; a breakthrough conference finish
Moment of the Year · UT Permian Basin · 2025
Moment of the Year · UT Permian Basin · 2025Postseason · Won 37-24 at CSU Pueblo
Week 13 of 2025. Postseason win — the season-defining moment.
Postseason History
Postseason HistoryRecent postseason (2023-2025): 1-1
Most recent: 2025 — win 24-37 (away). Last 5 postseason: 1-1.
20252023
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