Player stats
No player stats logged for this program yet — stats appear once the season is underway.
Biggest plays from Central Arkansas’s games
Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in Central Arkansas’s games this season, whoever made them.
Q1, 14:16 · Florida State tiedAshton Daniels finds Duce Robinson for a 29-yard touchdownCentral Arkansas at Florida State, week 4Q1, 14:16 · Florida State 7, Central Arkansas 0Florida State opened the scoringFlorida State opened the scoringA.Daniels pass complete deep middle to D.Robinson caught at UCA07, for 29 yards to the UCA00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
- Q1, 6:56 · Florida State up 7Ousmane Kromah runs 6 yards for a touchdownCentral Arkansas at Florida State, week 4Q1, 6:56 · Florida State 14, Central Arkansas 014-0score after the play14-0score after the playO.Kromah rush left for 6 yards gain to the UCA00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play
Q1, 5:58 · Central Arkansas down 14Rylan Kennedy sacks Donovyn Omolo for an 8-yard lossCentral Arkansas at Florida State, week 4Q1, 5:58 · Central Arkansas 0, Florida State 140-14score after the play0-14score after the playD.Omolo sacked for loss of 8 yards to the UCA11 (R.Kennedy)▶Watch from this play- Q2, 0:20 · Florida State up 17Ashtyn Williams intercepts Ashton DanielsCentral Arkansas at Florida State, week 4Q2, 0:20 · Florida State 24, Central Arkansas 724-7score after the play24-7score after the playA.Daniels pass intercepted by A.Williams at UCA24, End Of Play▶Watch from this play
- Q3, 5:50 · Florida State up 17Ashton Daniels finds Jayvan Boggs for a 34-yard touchdownCentral Arkansas at Florida State, week 4Q3, 5:50 · Florida State 31, Central Arkansas 7Jayvan Boggs's first 100-yard receiving game of 2026Jayvan Boggs's first 100-yard receiving game of 2026A.Daniels pass complete deep left to J.Boggs caught at UCA01, for 34 yards to the UCA00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
How scary each game got
Central Arkansas lost to UT Rio Grande Valley after being 83% to win; the closest win was at UT Martin, down to 20%
Tap a game for its score and win chances.
Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave Central Arkansas during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.
Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents
Central Arkansas is worth +2.8 points more at home than on the road.
Bottom third of FBS, 24th percentile of 133 programs
40% at home, 21% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (2-3 home, 4-15 away). Interval ±6.8.
The stadium and how the home edge is measured
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, Central Arkansas has beaten the number by −6.1 more at home than away over 53 games. That is inside the ±9.2 that many games can resolve, so the results cannot tell this stadium from the flat number. That is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.
Estes Stadium seats 10,000 and has averaged 63% full (6,344, 14 games reported). Visitors cover a median 351 miles to get here (2018-present).
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across 42 of 44 home games since 2018. No national trip rank shown: the ranked field is FBS venues only and leaves out the service academies and venues with too few measured games.
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Scheme claims
How much of Central Arkansas’s number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.14; adjusted for opponent strength, it's 0.05. The widest gap came in week 1: 0.37 raw vs. 0.05 adjusted.