Memphis at South Florida
Memphis (7‑2) at South Florida (6‑2) — no line yet, and the model has this one close to even. South Florida’s passing offense is at the 8th percentile; Memphis’s pass defense is at the 89th.
How they got here
Last three games
Memphis · 7-2
Rated 100th in our preseason ratings, 52nd now, up 48 spots.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last three games
South Florida · 6-2
Rated 64th in our preseason ratings, 68th now.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Biggest mismatch: South Florida’s passing EPA against Memphis, 81 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
South Florida’s passing EPA against Memphis’s defense
South Florida offense, 8th percentile · Memphis defense, 89th
Memphis’s explosive plays against South Florida’s defense
Memphis offense, 68th percentile · South Florida defense, 93rd
Memphis’s success rate against South Florida’s defense
Memphis offense, 88th percentile · South Florida defense, 62nd
What’s at stake
Make the playoff
Win the conference
Win the title
CFP odds as of November 4, 2026
The series
Memphis leads the series 10-4
14 meetings since 2001 · Memphis has won the last 5
- 2025Memphis 34-31
- 2024 · neutral siteMemphis 21-3
- 2023Memphis 59-50
- 2020Memphis 34-33
- 2019Memphis 49-10
Each line is South Florida’s chance to win through that meeting. South Florida is 0-2 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Memphis
The chip · vs the blue bloodsThe fanbase watches every realignment shuffle leave Memphis on the outside while it out-wins programs that got the call — the sense that the city beats people who'll never have to share a conference with it.
South Florida
The chip · vs the national mediaBulls fans remember being No. 2 in the country and then being written off entirely — and they remember 2025, when USF beat Boise State and Florida in eight days and made the doubters look up again. They'll tell you nobody believed the rebuild until the scoreboard forced it.
What this game touches
The lost decade after No. 2 — and the coach who just walked out. USF climbed from a 1997 startup to No. 2 in 2007, then collapsed: the Leavitt firing, losing seasons, near-irrelevance. Alex Golesh finally rebuilt the Bulls into a 9-4, top-ten-scoring team in 2025 — and then left for Auburn in late November before the bowl, which USF lost. The Bulls open 2026 under Brian Hartline, hoping the momentum survived the exit.
Best players
Memphis
- Michael Montgomery (LB) · 66 tackles
- Marcus Stokes (QB) · 2,532 passing yards
- Jaylin Carter (RB) · 929 rushing yards
South Florida
- Ayden Jackson (DB) · 42 tackles
- Zavier Hamilton (LB) · 40 tackles
- Tavin Ward (S) · 39 tackles
The betting line, and the fans
Memphis fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (92nd percentile among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
Weather at kickoff
Typical at Raymond James Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 91, noon Saturdays 70
Memphis at South Florida · Thursday, Nov. 12 · 8 pm ET · Raymond James Stadium.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Raymond James Stadium: noon Saturdays score 70, 3:30 pm 72, 7:30 pm 91.
- noon: 70, Rough
- 3:30 pm: 72, Rough
- 7:30 pm: 91, Comfortable
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
South Florida is worth +2.6 points (±4.7) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 22nd percentile.
43% at home, 29% on the road against FBS opponents (18-24 home, 14-34 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.3 at home vs. away over 98 games — inside the ±6.7 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 661 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
South Florida
- Wk 4Wat Bowling Green14-6
- Wk 5Lvs Temple13-17
- Wk 6Lat UTSA24-31
- Wk 7Wvs Kent State29-2
- Wk 9Wvs UAB30-10
Memphis
- Wk 5Wat Charlotte59-8
- Wk 6Wvs UAB38-13
- Wk 7Lat Tulane17-31
- Wk 8Wvs East Carolina41-34
- Wk 9Wvs Army49-22
Power rating by week
Memphis is rated 1.6 points ahead as of week 10. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- South Florida9th2-2
- Memphis3rd4-1