Memphis

2-1

American Athletic · Charles Huff, year 1 (2-1) · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium · 58,325 · 45,632 avg in 2026

The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#91 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #64 (+2.1) · FPI #69
The marketno line yetvs UT Martin · our model 85% Memphis · a number, not a pick

LastL 20–38 at Boise State · Sat Sep 12 · Hunter Tipton 229 rec yds, 1 TD

Nextvs UT Martin · Sat Sep 19 · 7 pm ET · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium · series 2-1 · Game preview

Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2

Key stats — 2026 — FBS rank
Points/game
29.7
Pts allowed/game
27.7
Total yards/gm#2 / 138 · 99th pct
486.7
Rush yards/gm#5 / 138 · 97th pct
221.7
Pass yards/gm#6 / 138 · 96th pct
265.0
Yards allowed/gm#138 / 138 · 1st pct
490.7
Rush yds allowed/gm#138 / 138 · 1st pct
211.7
SacksT-#6 / 138 · 96th pct
9
InterceptionsT-#5 / 115 · 91st pct
4
3rd-down convT-#110 / 138 · 20th pct
32.1%
All 93 stats
Offense / Defense
Total yards
Team
1460486.7/gm8.34/play#2 / 138 · 99th pct#2 / 70 · 98th pct#1 / 14 · 96th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
1472490.7/gm6.91/play#138 / 138 · 1st pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#14 / 14 · 4th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush yards
Team
665221.7/gm3.80/play#5 / 138 · 97th pct#3 / 70 · 96th pct#3 / 14 · 82nd pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
635211.7/gm2.98/play#138 / 138 · 1st pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#14 / 14 · 4th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush carries
Team
10836.0/gmT-#7 / 138 · 95th pct#3 / 70 · 96th pctT-#2 / 14 · 86th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
11739.0/gm#137 / 138 · 1st pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#14 / 14 · 4th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush TDs
Team
62.0/gmT-#27 / 138 · 78th pctT-#19 / 70 · 71st pct#3 / 14 · 82nd pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
62.0/gmT-#126 / 138 · 7th pctT-#68 / 70 · 3rd pct#11 / 14 · 25th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Net pass yards
Team
795265.0/gm4.54/play#6 / 138 · 96th pct#4 / 70 · 95th pct#1 / 14 · 96th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
837279.0/gm3.93/play#138 / 138 · 1st pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#14 / 14 · 4th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Pass attempts
Team
6722.3/gmT-#46 / 138 · 67th pctT-#23 / 70 · 67th pct#4 / 14 · 75th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
9632.0/gm#134 / 138 · 3rd pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#14 / 14 · 4th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Completions
Team
4414.7/gmT-#46 / 138 · 65th pctT-#24 / 70 · 62nd pct#4 / 14 · 75th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
6321.0/gm#135 / 138 · 3rd pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#14 / 14 · 4th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Pass TDs
Team
51.7/gmT-#33 / 138 · 71st pctT-#24 / 70 · 60th pctT-#2 / 14 · 86th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
41.3/gmT-#103 / 138 · 19th pctT-#62 / 70 · 9th pctT-#9 / 14 · 29th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Passer rating
Team
178.0178.0#19 / 115 · 84th pct#17 / 60 · 72nd pct#1 / 10 · 95th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Opp
146.4146.4#72 / 91 · 21st pct#39 / 42 · 8th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Interceptions thrown
Team
31.0/gmT-#8 / 138 · 89th pctT-#5 / 70 · 91st pctT-#1 / 14 · 93rd pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
41.3/gmT-#123 / 138 · 7th pctT-#65 / 70 · 5th pctT-#13 / 14 · 7th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Sacks (def)
Team
93.0/gmT-#6 / 138 · 96th pctT-#6 / 70 · 91st pct#1 / 14 · 96th pct#11 / 11 · 9th pct
Opp
41.3/gmT-#74 / 138 · 37th pctT-#42 / 70 · 31st pctT-#8 / 14 · 32nd pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
Tackles for loss
Team
196.3/gmT-#7 / 138 · 95th pctT-#3 / 70 · 95th pct#1 / 14 · 96th pct#11 / 11 · 9th pct
Opp
134.3/gmT-#109 / 138 · 18th pctT-#63 / 70 · 9th pctT-#12 / 14 · 14th pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
First downs
Team
6120.3/gmT-#7 / 138 · 95th pct#5 / 70 · 94th pct#1 / 14 · 96th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
7324.3/gm#138 / 138 · 1st pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#14 / 14 · 4th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
3rd-down conv
Team
93.0/gmT-#85 / 138 · 32nd pctT-#50 / 70 · 24th pctT-#9 / 14 · 36th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
144.7/gmT-#111 / 138 · 17th pctT-#60 / 70 · 12th pct#12 / 14 · 18th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
3rd-down att
Team
289.3/gmT-#45 / 138 · 64th pctT-#19 / 70 · 70th pctT-#5 / 14 · 61st pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
3913.0/gm#131 / 138 · 5th pct#69 / 70 · 2nd pct#14 / 14 · 4th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
4th-down conv
Team
00.0/gmT-#114 / 138 · 9th pctT-#52 / 70 · 14th pctT-#13 / 14 · 7th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
41.3/gmT-#121 / 138 · 9th pctT-#63 / 70 · 7th pctT-#12 / 14 · 14th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
4th-down att
Team
20.7/gmT-#98 / 138 · 22nd pctT-#45 / 70 · 29th pctT-#12 / 14 · 14th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
82.7/gmT-#131 / 138 · 3rd pctT-#68 / 70 · 2nd pctT-#12 / 14 · 14th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Time of possession
Team
74:2224:47/gm#12 / 138 · 92nd pct#3 / 70 · 96th pct#1 / 14 · 96th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
105:3835:13/gm#138 / 138 · 1st pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#14 / 14 · 4th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct

FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs

Player stats — 2026 season
Quarterbacks
Player#GCmp/AttPctYdsY/ATDINTRateZPRQBRAdj ANY/ASack%
+0.56 EPA/play2344 / 6666.7795
#2 FBS
12.05
#22 FBS
3183.88082.810.55.7
Running Backs
Player#GCarYdsAvgTDLongStuff%10+%
Speed Merchant · +0.56 EPA/play6343375
#1 FBS
8.76
#1 FBS
80
+0.11 EPA/play28332165
#48 FBS
5.2036
Receivers
Player#GRecYdsAvgTDLong
Move TE · +1.54 EPA/play314291
#6 FBS
20.82
#24 FBS
87
+0.28 EPA/play13712017.1044
+0.40 EPA/play1138627.8131

2026 stat leaders · Memphis

through 3 games

Jaylin Carter leads Memphis with 375 rushing yards through 3 games.

1. Jaylin Carter RB 375 rushing yards
2. Hunter Tipton TE 291 receiving yards
3. Zach Ruffin LB 24 tackles
4. Ian Foster S 23 tackles
5. Michael Montgomery LB 22 tackles
How They Play · 2026

Memphis fields an elite run-heavy, explosive, big-play offense behind a porous, gives up the big play defense.

Offense
85th pct EPA/play
Run/Pass
63% run plays
Tempo
95th pct explosiveness
Defense
5th pct EPA allowed
Defensive shape
5th pct at limiting explosive plays

Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.

The Savant Card · Memphis · 2026

Memphis reads strongest in explosive plays (top 5%) and rushing epa (top 5%); the crux lives in rushing epa allowed, where Memphis sits at the 5th percentile.

offense · strengths lead

EPA / play +0.28
85th
Success Rate +0.43
55th
Explosive Plays +1.60
95th
Rushing EPA +0.17
95th
Red-Zone Finish +3.78
45th

defense · higher bar = harder to play against

EPA Allowed +0.22
5th
Success Rate Allowed +0.44
15th
Explosive Plays Allowed +1.39
5th
Passing EPA Allowed +0.18
65th
Red-Zone Defense +3.29
65th

hidden math · special situations

Field Position (O) +22.08
5th
Passing EPA +0.72
85th
Rushing EPA Allowed +0.30
5th
Elite · 90+Strong · 70+Average · 40-70Concern · 10-40Bottom · <10
Sources · CFBD tier-2 advanced stats · per-game production · 3 games this season · percentiles vs. up to 10 FBS peers

Home-field advantage · Memphis · 2018–present · FBS opponents

Memphis is worth +3.3 points more at home than on the road.

Middle of FBS, 36th percentile of 133 programs

80% at home, 52% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (37–9 home, 23–21 away). Interval ±3.2.

95% intervalmodel 2.3 · books ~3Weakest home edge in FBSStrongest

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge — per-team modelling was tested and did not survive scrutiny (why) — and the books use about 3. Against the closing line, Memphis has beaten the number by −0.2 more at home than away over 75 games — inside the ±5.6 that many games can resolve. Results here cannot tell the flat number apart from the building, and that is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.

Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium seats 58,325 and has averaged 48% full (27,981, 26 games reported). Visitors cover a median 421 miles to get here since 2018 — 66th-shortest of 135 FBS venues, inside the ordinary range. 11% of the 2026 roster (11 of 103 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.

Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 54 home games since 2018.

Home37–9Away23–21Edge+3.3 ±3.2Visitor trip421 mi

More in this tab

Position battlesReps are split -- here's who's actually winning them.

Positional competition · RB room

The carries are split. The job isn’t.

Jaylin Carter and Manny Covey split the carries (42/75 vs 33/75) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Jaylin Carter produces in bigger chunks.

Jaylin CarterManny Covey
Carries
4233
the baseline -- every row below is tested against this split, not a flat 50/50
Q4, leading (competitive)
11/209/20
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Top-5-carry share
61.4%51.8%
concentration and EPA/carry agree -- a real boom/bust split
Screened 2 claims, 1 survived, 1 falsified
Scheme claimsFive specific, testable claims about how this team plays.

Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected

Memphis's 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time

Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 25th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 37th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.

league medianRaw 4th quarter · 25th pct…Competitive snaps only · 37th pctileWorst in FBSBest in FBS
Source CFB Zeitgeist · CFBD play-by-play, garbage-time adjusted by pre-play margin

Standard downs vs. passing downs

Does Memphis hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?

69th percentile success on standard downs, 65th on passing downs — little dropoff between the two — a schedule-independent identity.

Fragile off scheduleBalanced, both workStruggles even on scheduleStandard-downs reliantMemphisWeak on standard downsElite on standard downsFalls apart off scheduleHolds up off scheduleHawai'i18th standard · 41st passingUNLV51st standard · 7th passingStanford76th standard · 15th passingEastern Michigan52nd standard · 10th passingSan José State54th standard · 22nd passingNew Mexico State45th standard · 75th passingSacramento State23rd standard · 14th passingOklahoma State41st standard · 49th passingDuke20th standard · 29th passingFlorida State28th standard · 65th passingRutgers30th standard · 71st passingKansas70th standard · 35th passingBoston College27th standard · 56th passingNorfolk State16th standard · 9th passingLouisville96th standard · 70th passingMissouri36th standard · 85th passingMemphis69th standard · 65th passingGeorgia Southern24th standard · 45th passingOle Miss94th standard · 50th passingJacksonville State65th standard · 82nd passingNorth Dakota State86th standard · 27th passingArizona92nd standard · 86th passingUSC97th standard · 99th passingWake Forest56th standard · 97th passingTCU93rd standard · 8th passingDelaware70th standard · 31st passingUAB65th standard · 81st passingMichigan State62nd standard · 29th passingSouth Florida91st standard · 52nd passingFlorida International46th standard · 43rd passingNavy98th standard · 59th passingWisconsin13th standard · 18th passingOregon State10th standard · 38th passingSyracuse48th standard · 64th passingOhio State90th standard · 40th passingBall State12th standard · 24th passingPittsburgh30th standard · 76th passingColorado35th standard · 77th passingGeorgia Tech58th standard · 44th passingAuburn75th standard · 55th passingBaylor40th standard · 96th passingNorth Texas49th standard · 68th passingApp State44th standard · 90th passingIowa State4th standard · 23rd passingUTSA99th standard · 29th passingArkansas60th standard · 80th passingBoise State58th standard · 46th passingOregon35th standard · 33rd passingTulsa56th standard · 1st passingTulane31st standard · 2nd passingPurdue83rd standard · 88th passingMiddle Tennessee87th standard · 68th passingVanderbilt80th standard · 12th passingSan Diego State4th standard · 40th passingLSU33rd standard · 98th passingClemson1st standard · 19th passingCentral Michigan16th standard · 6th passingTexas Tech88th standard · 48th passingMichigan2nd standard · 62nd passingWestern Michigan39th standard · 20th passingOhio38th standard · 17th passingBuffalo7th standard · 14th passingTexas72nd standard · 94th passingCoastal Carolina61st standard · 52nd passingColorado State82nd standard · 91st passingWyoming65th standard · 36th passingTexas A&M85th standard · 72nd passingLiberty14th standard · 59th passingFlorida Atlantic43rd standard · 87th passingLouisiana19th standard · 92nd passingSouth Alabama50th standard · 73rd passingTroy22nd standard · 59th passingSam Houston78th standard · 61st passingNevada77th standard · 52nd passingWestern Kentucky25th standard · 34th passingWashington State8th standard · 3rd passingWashington81st standard · 4th passingCalifornia9th standard · 25th passingCharlotte73rd standard · 83rd passingTennessee65th standard · 78th passingUtah State4th standard · 93rd passing
Source CFB Zeitgeist · advanced team stats, Connelly success-rate definition
View all FBS teams as a table
TeamStandard-downs percentilePassing-downs percentile
App State44th90th
Arizona92nd86th
Arkansas60th80th
Auburn75th55th
Ball State12th24th
Baylor40th96th
Boise State58th46th
Boston College27th56th
Buffalo7th14th
California9th25th
Central Michigan16th6th
Charlotte73rd83rd
Clemson1st19th
Coastal Carolina61st52nd
Colorado35th77th
Colorado State82nd91st
Delaware70th31st
Duke20th29th
Eastern Michigan52nd10th
Florida Atlantic43rd87th
Florida International46th43rd
Florida State28th65th
Georgia Southern24th45th
Georgia Tech58th44th
Hawai'i18th41st
Iowa State4th23rd
Jacksonville State65th82nd
Kansas70th35th
LSU33rd98th
Liberty14th59th
Louisiana19th92nd
Louisville96th70th
Memphis69th65th
Michigan2nd62nd
Michigan State62nd29th
Middle Tennessee87th68th
Missouri36th85th
Navy98th59th
Nevada77th52nd
New Mexico State45th75th
Norfolk State16th9th
North Dakota State86th27th
North Texas49th68th
Ohio38th17th
Ohio State90th40th
Oklahoma State41st49th
Ole Miss94th50th
Oregon35th33rd
Oregon State10th38th
Pittsburgh30th76th
Purdue83rd88th
Rutgers30th71st
Sacramento State23rd14th
Sam Houston78th61st
San Diego State4th40th
San José State54th22nd
South Alabama50th73rd
South Florida91st52nd
Stanford76th15th
Syracuse48th64th
TCU93rd8th
Tennessee65th78th
Texas72nd94th
Texas A&M85th72nd
Texas Tech88th48th
Troy22nd59th
Tulane31st2nd
Tulsa56th1st
UAB65th81st
UNLV51st7th
USC97th99th
UTSA99th29th
Utah State4th93rd
Vanderbilt80th12th
Wake Forest56th97th
Washington81st4th
Washington State8th3rd
Western Kentucky25th34th
Western Michigan39th20th
Wisconsin13th18th
Wyoming65th36th

Halftime identity

Memphis by half

1st-half offense ranks 92nd percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 79th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.

league median1st half · 92nd pctile2nd half · 79th pctileWorst in FBSBest in FBS
Source CFB Zeitgeist · advanced team stats, garbage-time adjusted by pre-play margin
Pass defense by zoneThe part of the field opponents keep attacking.

Pass-depth identity

What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.

On short throws (≤19 air yards), Memphis’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (66.7% vs 65.2% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 81-play sample) — mid-pack, 14 of 18 qualifying defenses.

We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.

Screened 59 claims, 59 survived · 2025+ only, charted plays (parse_status='complete'); n=81 short-zone plays, raw rate 69.1%
Havoc & trenchesDisruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.

Havoc & trenches

Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.

Havoc Rate (D) 0.148
75th
Havoc Allowed (O) 0.152
65th
Front-Seven Havoc (D) 0.095
55th
Secondary Havoc (D) 0.053
45th
Stuff Rate (D) 0.133
25th
Stuff Rate Allowed (O) 0.222
15th
Line Yards (O) 3.087
65th
Line Yards Allowed (D) 3.318
15th
Standard-Downs Success (O) 0.483
55th
Standard-Downs Success Allowed (D) 0.538
15th
Passing-Downs Success (O) 0.311
65th
Passing-Downs Success Allowed (D) 0.268
55th
Screened 12 claims, 12 survived · 2026 season, FBS only, min. 3 games with data this season
RatingsWhere the public rating systems put this team.

Model Consensus

Where the Models Rank Memphis

CFB Zeitgeist

#91

-1.7

SP+

#64

+2.1

FPI

#69

-0.2

Elo

#57

1526

The national models put Memphis between 57th and 69th nationally — CFB Zeitgeist is more skeptical, at 91st.

National rank of 138 FBS teams · 2026 season. SP+/FPI/SRS published; Elo & CFB Zeitgeist ranked by rating.

Comparable teamsPrograms built like this one — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, roster size. Not a stat match.

Most similar programs · Memphis

Reads like

Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.

ConditionsThe weather and altitude visitors have to deal with.
Venue texture

70°F average kickoff temp; 7% of games had measurable precipitation; 7 mph average wind.

Based on 82 home games with weather data.

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