Model vs. market · Updated nightly
Where we disagree
Every week our power model puts a win probability on each FBS game. So does the betting market, through its closing point spread. Most of the time the two agree. This page lists the games where they don't, biggest gap first, so you can see exactly where our independent number parts ways with the consensus — and, once the games are played, which side had it.
107 FBS games with both a model number and a closing line, kickoff within 8 days either way: 57 upcoming, 50 final. In 9 of them the model and the market favor different teams.
| Kickoff | Away at home | Model favors | Market favors | Gap (pct. pts) | Why, in stored numbers | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Sep 12Wk 2 · 3:30 PM ET | Mississippi StateatMinnesota | Minnesota90% | Mississippi State55% | 45.1Different favorite | Model line Minnesota −16.1; market closed Mississippi State −1.5 (17.6-pt gap). Power ratings: Minnesota +3.4, Mississippi State -6.1. | Final · Mississippi State 38, Minnesota 13Market had it |
| Sat Sep 12Wk 2 · 7:45 PM ET | Southern MissatAuburn | Auburn60% | Auburn100% | 39.3 | Model line Auburn −3.2; market closed Auburn −32.5 (29.3-pt gap). Power ratings: Auburn +1.9, Southern Miss -1.1. | Final · Southern Miss 8, Auburn 43Both had it |
| Sat Sep 12Wk 2 · 4:15 PM ET | DelawareatVanderbilt | Vanderbilt57% | Vanderbilt95% | 38.5 | Model line Vanderbilt −2.0; market closed Vanderbilt −20.5 (18.5-pt gap). Power ratings: Vanderbilt +2.3, Delaware +1.6. | Final · Delaware 26, Vanderbilt 35Both had it |
| Sat Sep 12Wk 2 · 11:00 PM ET | LouisianaatUSC | USC61% | USC99% | 38.4 | Model line USC −3.4; market closed USC −30.5 (27.1-pt gap). Power ratings: USC +4.6, Louisiana +3.5. | Final · Louisiana 30, USC 49Both had it |
| Sat Sep 19Wk 3 · 10:30 PM ET | North Dakota StateatSacramento State | North Dakota State60% | North Dakota State99% | 38.4 | Model line North Dakota State −3.2; market closed North Dakota State −27.5 (24.3-pt gap). Power ratings: Sacramento State -4.4, North Dakota State -0.1. | Upcoming |
| Sat Sep 12Wk 2 · 3:30 PM ET | Eastern MichiganatMichigan State | Michigan State56% | Michigan State92% | 36.3 | Model line Michigan State −1.8; market closed Michigan State −17.5 (15.7-pt gap). Power ratings: Michigan State -4.2, Eastern Michigan -4.8. | Final · Eastern Michigan 7, Michigan State 35Both had it |
| Sat Sep 19Wk 3 · 7:00 PM ET | UConnatSouthern Miss | Southern Miss75% | UConn60% | 34.4Different favorite | Model line Southern Miss −8.3; market closed UConn −3.0 (11.3-pt gap). Power ratings: Southern Miss +1.6, UConn -3.9. | Upcoming |
| Sat Sep 19Wk 3 · 7:00 PM ET | NevadaatMiddle Tennessee | Middle Tennessee72% | Nevada61% | 33.3Different favorite | Model line Middle Tennessee −7.3; market closed Nevada −3.5 (10.8-pt gap). Power ratings: Middle Tennessee -4.4, Nevada -7.3. | Upcoming |
| Sat Sep 19Wk 3 · 12:00 PM ET | Bowling GreenatIowa State | Iowa State65% | Iowa State97% | 31.8 | Model line Iowa State −4.9; market closed Iowa State −23.5 (18.6-pt gap). Power ratings: Iowa State -5.0, Bowling Green -4.8. | Upcoming |
| Sat Sep 19Wk 3 · 12:00 PM ET | AkronatMinnesota | Minnesota67% | Minnesota97% | 30.8 | Model line Minnesota −5.3; market closed Minnesota −24.0 (18.7-pt gap). Power ratings: Minnesota +4.0, Akron +1.1. | Upcoming |
| Sat Sep 12Wk 2 · 7:15 PM ET | San Diego StateatUCLA | UCLA56% | UCLA86% | 30.5 | Model line UCLA −1.8; market closed UCLA −13.5 (11.7-pt gap). Power ratings: UCLA +2.2, San Diego State +1.7. | Final · San Diego State 10, UCLA 28Both had it |
| Sat Sep 19Wk 3 · 7:30 PM ET | ColoradoatNorthwestern | Northwestern91% | Northwestern61% | 29.7 | Model line Northwestern −16.5; market closed Northwestern −3.5 (13.0-pt gap). Power ratings: Northwestern +8.4, Colorado -5.3. | Upcoming |
| Sat Sep 19Wk 3 · 3:30 PM ET | Miami (OH)atCincinnati | Cincinnati58% | Cincinnati88% | 29.5 | Model line Cincinnati −2.6; market closed Cincinnati −14.5 (11.9-pt gap). Power ratings: Cincinnati -3.4, Miami (OH) -1.4. | Upcoming |
| Sat Sep 12Wk 2 · 12:00 PM ET | Penn StateatTemple | Penn State69% | Penn State98% | 29.1 | Model line Penn State −6.0; market closed Penn State −24.5 (18.5-pt gap). Power ratings: Temple -2.6, Penn State +6.1. | Final · Penn State 27, Temple 9Both had it |
| Sat Sep 12Wk 2 · 3:30 PM ET | MarylandatUConn | Maryland55% | Maryland82% | 27.5 | Model line Maryland −1.5; market closed Maryland −11.5 (10.0-pt gap). Power ratings: UConn -4.5, Maryland -1.7. | Final · Maryland 38, UConn 14Both had it |
| Sat Sep 19Wk 3 · 11:30 AM ET | Coastal CarolinaatDelaware | Delaware92% | Delaware66% | 26.3 | Model line Delaware −17.4; market closed Delaware −5.0 (12.4-pt gap). Power ratings: Delaware +4.1, Coastal Carolina -7.9. | Upcoming |
| Sat Sep 12Wk 2 · 7:00 PM ET | South AlabamaatTulane | Tulane53% | Tulane78% | 24.9 | Model line Tulane −0.9; market closed Tulane −9.5 (8.6-pt gap). Power ratings: Tulane -0.2, South Alabama -0.8. | Final · South Alabama 24, Tulane 28Both had it |
| Sat Sep 19Wk 3 · 12:00 PM ET | North CarolinaatClemson | Clemson86% | Clemson61% | 24.4 | Model line Clemson −13.1; market closed Clemson −3.5 (9.6-pt gap). Power ratings: Clemson +7.3, North Carolina -3.6. | Upcoming |
| Sat Sep 19Wk 3 · 7:00 PM ET | Georgia StateatUCF | UCF69% | UCF93% | 23.9 | Model line UCF −6.3; market closed UCF −18.5 (12.2-pt gap). Power ratings: UCF -1.6, Georgia State -5.1. | Upcoming |
| Sat Sep 19Wk 3 · 8:00 PM ET | UTSAatTexas | Texas76% | Texas99% | 23.1 | Model line Texas −8.8; market closed Texas −30.0 (21.2-pt gap). Power ratings: Texas +13.7, UTSA +7.9. | Upcoming |
| Sat Sep 19Wk 3 · 4:15 PM ET | Mississippi StateatSouth Carolina | South Carolina83% | South Carolina61% | 22.2 | Model line South Carolina −12.0; market closed South Carolina −3.5 (8.5-pt gap). Power ratings: South Carolina +7.8, Mississippi State -2.7. | Upcoming |
| Sat Sep 12Wk 2 · 7:00 PM ET | TulsaatSam Houston | Tulsa62% | Tulsa84% | 22.2 | Model line Tulsa −3.8; market closed Tulsa −12.5 (8.7-pt gap). Power ratings: Sam Houston -7.8, Tulsa -5.9. | Final · Tulsa 23, Sam Houston 17Both had it |
| Sat Sep 19Wk 3 · 12:30 PM ET | Eastern MichiganatWisconsin | Wisconsin75% | Wisconsin97% | 22.0 | Model line Wisconsin −8.4; market closed Wisconsin −23.5 (15.1-pt gap). Power ratings: Wisconsin -1.5, Eastern Michigan -4.2. | Upcoming |
| Sat Sep 19Wk 3 · 12:00 PM ET | North TexasatTexas State | Texas State81% | Texas State60% | 21.6 | Model line Texas State −11.0; market closed Texas State −3.0 (8.0-pt gap). Power ratings: Texas State +5.2, North Texas -4.0. | Upcoming |
| Sat Sep 19Wk 3 · 7:30 PM ET | LSUatOle Miss | Ole Miss62% | LSU60% | 21.3Different favorite | Model line Ole Miss −3.7; market closed LSU −3.0 (6.7-pt gap). Power ratings: Ole Miss +8.1, LSU +6.5. | Upcoming |
| Sat Sep 12Wk 2 · 3:30 PM ET | Utah StateatWashington | Washington78% | Washington99% | 21.1 | Model line Washington −9.5; market closed Washington −28.5 (19.0-pt gap). Power ratings: Washington +6.0, Utah State +0.1. | Final · Utah State 14, Washington 16Both had it |
| Sat Sep 19Wk 3 · 3:30 PM ET | Utah StateatUtah | Utah78% | Utah99% | 20.8 | Model line Utah −9.6; market closed Utah −28.0 (18.4-pt gap). Power ratings: Utah +5.6, Utah State +2.1. | Upcoming |
| Sat Sep 12Wk 2 · 12:00 PM ET | Old DominionatVirginia Tech | Virginia Tech71% | Virginia Tech92% | 20.7 | Model line Virginia Tech −7.0; market closed Virginia Tech −17.5 (10.5-pt gap). Power ratings: Virginia Tech +0.8, Old Dominion -0.7. | Final · Old Dominion 21, Virginia Tech 44Both had it |
| Sat Sep 12Wk 2 · 12:00 PM ET | Washington StateatKansas State | Kansas State72% | Kansas State92% | 20.1 | Model line Kansas State −7.2; market closed Kansas State −17.5 (10.3-pt gap). Power ratings: Kansas State +3.5, Washington State +4.9. | Final · Washington State 7, Kansas State 34Both had it |
| Sat Sep 19Wk 3 · 3:30 PM ET | SMUatLouisville | SMU65% | Louisville55% | 19.7Different favorite | Model line SMU −4.7; market closed Louisville −1.5 (6.2-pt gap). Power ratings: Louisville +2.2, SMU +8.2. | Upcoming |
| Sat Sep 19Wk 3 · 3:30 PM ET | USCatRutgers | USC78% | USC98% | 19.6 | Model line USC −9.6; market closed USC −24.5 (14.9-pt gap). Power ratings: Rutgers -1.5, USC +6.3. | Upcoming |
| Sat Sep 12Wk 2 · 7:30 PM ET | Texas TechatOregon State | Texas Tech80% | Texas Tech98% | 18.4 | Model line Texas Tech −10.2; market closed Texas Tech −25.5 (15.3-pt gap). Power ratings: Oregon State +2.5, Texas Tech +8.5. | Final · Texas Tech 35, Oregon State 24Both had it |
| Sat Sep 12Wk 2 · 7:30 PM ET | Louisiana TechatLSU | LSU83% | LSU100% | 17.1 | Model line LSU −11.6; market closed LSU −34.5 (22.9-pt gap). Power ratings: LSU +7.8, Louisiana Tech -3.3. | Final · Louisiana Tech 14, LSU 45Both had it |
| Sat Sep 12Wk 2 · 7:00 PM ET | TennesseeatGeorgia Tech | Tennessee67% | Tennessee84% | 17.0 | Model line Tennessee −5.6; market closed Tennessee −12.5 (6.9-pt gap). Power ratings: Georgia Tech -2.2, Tennessee +3.3. | Final · Tennessee 45, Georgia Tech 24Both had it |
| Sat Sep 12Wk 2 · 10:30 PM ET | Sacramento StateatFresno State | Fresno State76% | Fresno State92% | 16.5 | Model line Fresno State −8.6; market closed Fresno State −17.5 (8.9-pt gap). Power ratings: Fresno State +3.2, Sacramento State -4.6. | Final · Sacramento State 3, Fresno State 49Both had it |
| Sat Sep 19Wk 3 · 4:00 PM ET | Louisiana TechatBaylor | Baylor78% | Baylor94% | 16.0 | Model line Baylor −9.7; market closed Baylor −19.5 (9.8-pt gap). Power ratings: Baylor +4.9, Louisiana Tech -0.9. | Upcoming |
| Sat Sep 12Wk 2 · 3:30 PM ET | UTSAatTexas State | UTSA61% | Texas State55% | 15.7Different favorite | Model line UTSA −3.4; market closed Texas State −1.5 (4.9-pt gap). Power ratings: Texas State +7.5, UTSA +6.1. | Final · UTSA 31, Texas State 26Model had it |
| Sat Sep 12Wk 2 · 12:00 PM ET | OklahomaatMichigan | Oklahoma52% | Oklahoma67% | 15.5 | Model line Oklahoma −0.5; market closed Oklahoma −5.5 (5.0-pt gap). Power ratings: Michigan +8.1, Oklahoma +3.9. | Final · Oklahoma 10, Michigan 17Neither had it |
| Sat Sep 12Wk 2 · 12:00 PM ET | South FloridaatArmy | Army75% | Army60% | 15.5 | Model line Army −8.4; market closed Army −3.0 (5.4-pt gap). Power ratings: Army +3.3, South Florida -0.1. | Final · South Florida 28, Army 24Neither had it |
| Sat Sep 19Wk 3 · 4:00 PM ET | Ball StateatLiberty | Liberty72% | Liberty87% | 15.3 | Model line Liberty −7.1; market closed Liberty −14.0 (6.9-pt gap). Power ratings: Liberty -2.3, Ball State -6.5. | Upcoming |
| Sat Sep 19Wk 3 · 7:30 PM ET | New MexicoatOklahoma | Oklahoma82% | Oklahoma97% | 14.8 | Model line Oklahoma −11.5; market closed Oklahoma −23.5 (12.0-pt gap). Power ratings: Oklahoma +7.8, New Mexico -0.4. | Upcoming |
| Sat Sep 19Wk 3 · 7:30 PM ET | BYUatColorado State | BYU78% | BYU92% | 14.1 | Model line BYU −9.6; market closed BYU −17.5 (7.9-pt gap). Power ratings: Colorado State -0.9, BYU +10.0. | Upcoming |
| Sat Sep 19Wk 3 · 7:00 PM ET | TroyatMissouri | Missouri85% | Missouri98% | 13.2 | Model line Missouri −13.0; market closed Missouri −26.5 (13.5-pt gap). Power ratings: Missouri +4.2, Troy -4.1. | Upcoming |
| Fri Sep 18Wk 3 · 7:30 PM ET | MiamiatWake Forest | Miami82% | Miami95% | 13.0 | Model line Miami −11.6; market closed Miami −21.0 (9.4-pt gap). Power ratings: Wake Forest -0.8, Miami +11.2. | Upcoming |
| Mon Sep 7Wk 1 · 7:30 PM ET | SMUatFlorida State | SMU73% | SMU60% | 13.0 | Model line SMU −7.4; market closed SMU −3.0 (4.4-pt gap). Power ratings: Florida State -2.7, SMU +9.0. | Final · SMU 27, Florida State 24Both had it |
| Sat Sep 19Wk 3 · 6:00 PM ET | Florida InternationalatFlorida Atlantic | Florida Atlantic58% | Florida Atlantic71% | 12.9 | Model line Florida Atlantic −2.6; market closed Florida Atlantic −7.0 (4.4-pt gap). Power ratings: Florida Atlantic -3.5, Florida International -3.7. | Upcoming |
| Sat Sep 12Wk 2 · 3:30 PM ET | UL MonroeatUAB | UAB90% | UAB78% | 12.0 | Model line UAB −15.8; market closed UAB −9.5 (6.3-pt gap). Power ratings: UAB +0.2, UL Monroe -9.0. | Final · UL Monroe 20, UAB 26Both had it |
| Fri Sep 11Wk 2 · 7:30 PM ET | RutgersatBoston College | Rutgers52% | Boston College60% | 11.5Different favorite | Model line Rutgers −0.6; market closed Boston College −3.0 (3.6-pt gap). Power ratings: Boston College -4.8, Rutgers -3.6. | Final · Rutgers 21, Boston College 28Market had it |
| Sat Sep 12Wk 2 · 12:00 PM ET | App StateatEast Carolina | East Carolina59% | East Carolina70% | 11.3 | Model line East Carolina −2.7; market closed East Carolina −6.5 (3.8-pt gap). Power ratings: East Carolina +1.7, App State -2.6. | Final · App State 27, East Carolina 24Neither had it |
| Sat Sep 19Wk 3 · 10:00 PM ET | James MadisonatSan Diego State | San Diego State69% | San Diego State58% | 10.8 | Model line San Diego State −6.1; market closed San Diego State −2.5 (3.6-pt gap). Power ratings: San Diego State +3.5, James Madison -1.0. | Upcoming |
| Sat Sep 19Wk 3 · 10:30 PM ET | Northern IllinoisatArizona | Arizona89% | Arizona100% | 10.4 | Model line Arizona −15.4; market closed Arizona −34.5 (19.1-pt gap). Power ratings: Arizona +6.1, Northern Illinois -2.8. | Upcoming |
| Sat Sep 12Wk 2 · 6:00 PM ET | BuffaloatFlorida International | Florida International65% | Florida International75% | 10.4 | Model line Florida International −4.8; market closed Florida International −8.5 (3.7-pt gap). Power ratings: Florida International -2.7, Buffalo -7.1. | Final · Buffalo 20, Florida International 33Both had it |
| Sat Sep 19Wk 3 · 12:00 PM ET | TulaneatKansas State | Kansas State85% | Kansas State95% | 10.2 | Model line Kansas State −12.8; market closed Kansas State −20.5 (7.7-pt gap). Power ratings: Kansas State +6.2, Tulane -0.2. | Upcoming |
| Sat Sep 19Wk 3 · 7:30 PM ET | Virginia TechatMaryland | Maryland50% | Virginia Tech60% | 9.7Different favorite | Model line pick'em; market closed Virginia Tech −3.0 (3.0-pt gap). Power ratings: Maryland +0.8, Virginia Tech +3.9. | Upcoming |
| Sat Sep 12Wk 2 · 7:00 PM ET | Middle TennesseeatMarshall | Marshall92% | Marshall82% | 9.6 | Model line Marshall −17.3; market closed Marshall −11.5 (5.8-pt gap). Power ratings: Marshall +6.4, Middle Tennessee -8.3. | Final · Middle Tennessee 26, Marshall 28Both had it |
| Sat Sep 12Wk 2 · 6:00 PM ET | Jacksonville StateatOhio | Ohio64% | Ohio55% | 9.1 | Model line Ohio −4.4; market closed Ohio −1.5 (2.9-pt gap). Power ratings: Ohio +3.8, Jacksonville State +0.6. | Final · Jacksonville State 27, Ohio 29Both had it |
| Sat Sep 19Wk 3 · 6:00 PM ET | CharlotteatApp State | App State83% | App State92% | 9.0 | Model line App State −11.9; market closed App State −17.5 (5.6-pt gap). Power ratings: App State -1.4, Charlotte -6.9. | Upcoming |
| Sat Sep 19Wk 3 · 12:00 PM ET | BuffaloatPenn State | Penn State91% | Penn State100% | 8.5 | Model line Penn State −17.0; market closed Penn State −39.5 (22.5-pt gap). Power ratings: Penn State +4.9, Buffalo -5.6. | Upcoming |
| Sat Sep 19Wk 3 · 7:00 PM ET | Western MichiganatRice | Western Michigan86% | Western Michigan78% | 8.4 | Model line Western Michigan −13.5; market closed Western Michigan −9.5 (4.0-pt gap). Power ratings: Rice -5.7, Western Michigan +6.4. | Upcoming |
| Sat Sep 12Wk 2 · 3:30 PM ET | DukeatIllinois | Illinois60% | Illinois69% | 8.3 | Model line Illinois −3.2; market closed Illinois −6.0 (2.8-pt gap). Power ratings: Illinois +0.5, Duke -0.2. | Final · Duke 31, Illinois 27Neither had it |
| Sat Sep 12Wk 2 · 7:30 PM ET | Iowa StateatIowa | Iowa95% | Iowa87% | 8.3 | Model line Iowa −20.8; market closed Iowa −14.0 (6.8-pt gap). Power ratings: Iowa +5.7, Iowa State -6.7. | Final · Iowa State 13, Iowa 16Both had it |
| Sat Sep 12Wk 2 · 7:00 PM ET | Bowling GreenatNebraska | Nebraska91% | Nebraska99% | 8.1 | Model line Nebraska −16.7; market closed Nebraska −30.5 (13.8-pt gap). Power ratings: Nebraska +4.9, Bowling Green -5.8. | Final · Bowling Green 7, Nebraska 56Both had it |
| Sat Sep 19Wk 3 · 7:00 PM ET | Georgia SouthernatJacksonville State | Jacksonville State68% | Jacksonville State60% | 8.1 | Model line Jacksonville State −5.7; market closed Jacksonville State −3.0 (2.7-pt gap). Power ratings: Jacksonville State +1.0, Georgia Southern -1.2. | Upcoming |
| Sat Sep 19Wk 3 · 4:00 PM ET | Western KentuckyatIndiana | Indiana92% | Indiana100% | 7.9 | Model line Indiana −17.5; market closed Indiana −44.0 (26.5-pt gap). Power ratings: Indiana +10.1, Western Kentucky +2.4. | Upcoming |
| Sat Sep 19Wk 3 · 3:00 PM ET | TempleatToledo | Toledo76% | Toledo69% | 7.9 | Model line Toledo −8.9; market closed Toledo −6.0 (2.9-pt gap). Power ratings: Toledo +3.4, Temple -1.7. | Upcoming |
| Sat Sep 12Wk 2 · 10:00 PM ET | North Dakota StateatAir Force | Air Force53% | North Dakota State55% | 7.6Different favorite | Model line Air Force −0.9; market closed North Dakota State −1.5 (2.4-pt gap). Power ratings: Air Force -1.6, North Dakota State +0.9. | Final · North Dakota State 38, Air Force 32Market had it |
| Sat Sep 19Wk 3 · 8:00 PM ET | Arkansas StateatTCU | TCU87% | TCU95% | 7.5 | Model line TCU −14.0; market closed TCU −20.0 (6.0-pt gap). Power ratings: TCU +2.5, Arkansas State -6.4. | Upcoming |
| Sat Sep 12Wk 2 · 7:00 PM ET | Georgia StateatKennesaw State | Kennesaw State65% | Kennesaw State73% | 7.4 | Model line Kennesaw State −4.9; market closed Kennesaw State −7.5 (2.6-pt gap). Power ratings: Kennesaw State -6.1, Georgia State -8.3. | Final · Georgia State 31, Kennesaw State 17Neither had it |
| Sat Sep 19Wk 3 · 7:45 PM ET | Kennesaw StateatTennessee | Tennessee93% | Tennessee100% | 7.2 | Model line Tennessee −18.0; market closed Tennessee −35.5 (17.5-pt gap). Power ratings: Tennessee +5.8, Kennesaw State -6.0. | Upcoming |
| Sat Sep 19Wk 3 · 7:00 PM ET | FloridaatAuburn | Florida65% | Florida58% | 7.0 | Model line Florida −4.8; market closed Florida −2.5 (2.3-pt gap). Power ratings: Auburn +1.1, Florida +7.0. | Upcoming |
| Sat Sep 12Wk 2 · 7:30 PM ET | Georgia SouthernatClemson | Clemson88% | Clemson95% | 6.8 | Model line Clemson −14.8; market closed Clemson −20.5 (5.7-pt gap). Power ratings: Clemson +8.1, Georgia Southern -4.3. | Final · Georgia Southern 7, Clemson 22Both had it |
| Sat Sep 12Wk 2 · 10:15 PM ET | ArkansasatUtah | Utah93% | Utah86% | 6.6 | Model line Utah −18.1; market closed Utah −13.5 (4.6-pt gap). Power ratings: Utah +3.8, Arkansas -6.1. | Final · Arkansas 10, Utah 43Both had it |
| Sat Sep 12Wk 2 · 12:00 PM ET | Wake ForestatPurdue | Wake Forest52% | Wake Forest58% | 6.2 | Model line Wake Forest −0.6; market closed Wake Forest −2.5 (1.9-pt gap). Power ratings: Purdue -5.1, Wake Forest -0.9. | Final · Wake Forest 38, Purdue 36Both had it |
| Sat Sep 12Wk 2 · 12:45 PM ET | Western KentuckyatGeorgia | Georgia94% | Georgia100% | 6.0 | Model line Georgia −19.3; market closed Georgia −40.5 (21.2-pt gap). Power ratings: Georgia +10.5, Western Kentucky -0.5. | Final · Western Kentucky 20, Georgia 70Both had it |
| Sat Sep 19Wk 3 · 6:00 PM ET | East CarolinaatOld Dominion | Old Dominion66% | Old Dominion60% | 5.9 | Model line Old Dominion −4.9; market closed Old Dominion −3.0 (1.9-pt gap). Power ratings: Old Dominion +0.7, East Carolina -1.0. | Upcoming |
| Sat Sep 12Wk 2 · 3:30 PM ET | CaliforniaatSyracuse | Syracuse57% | Syracuse63% | 5.9 | Model line Syracuse −2.1; market closed Syracuse −4.0 (1.9-pt gap). Power ratings: Syracuse -4.7, California +0.3. | Final · California 21, Syracuse 18Neither had it |
| Sat Sep 19Wk 3 · 3:30 PM ET | UTEPatMichigan | Michigan94% | Michigan100% | 5.7 | Model line Michigan −19.3; market closed Michigan −35.0 (15.7-pt gap). Power ratings: Michigan +7.5, UTEP -8.1. | Upcoming |
| Sat Sep 19Wk 3 · 3:30 PM ET | Florida StateatAlabama | Alabama89% | Alabama94% | 5.4 | Model line Alabama −15.1; market closed Alabama −19.5 (4.4-pt gap). Power ratings: Alabama +7.3, Florida State -1.8. | Upcoming |
| Sat Sep 19Wk 3 · 11:00 PM ET | Fresno StateatSan José State | Fresno State65% | Fresno State70% | 5.0 | Model line Fresno State −4.8; market closed Fresno State −6.5 (1.7-pt gap). Power ratings: San José State -4.3, Fresno State +2.0. | Upcoming |
| Sat Sep 12Wk 2 · 3:30 PM ET | AlabamaatKentucky | Alabama73% | Alabama78% | 5.0 | Model line Alabama −7.5; market closed Alabama −9.5 (2.0-pt gap). Power ratings: Kentucky -2.7, Alabama +5.9. | Final · Alabama 45, Kentucky 17Both had it |
| Sat Sep 12Wk 2 · 3:30 PM ET | ArizonaatBYU | BYU75% | BYU70% | 4.8 | Model line BYU −8.3; market closed BYU −6.5 (1.8-pt gap). Power ratings: BYU +6.7, Arizona +3.8. | Final · Arizona 17, BYU 28Both had it |
| Sat Sep 19Wk 3 · 3:30 PM ET | KentuckyatTexas A&M | Texas A&M96% | Texas A&M91% | 4.6 | Model line Texas A&M −21.9; market closed Texas A&M −17.0 (4.9-pt gap). Power ratings: Texas A&M +12.2, Kentucky -2.2. | Upcoming |
| Sat Sep 12Wk 2 · 6:00 PM ET | MemphisatBoise State | Boise State82% | Boise State78% | 4.4 | Model line Boise State −11.5; market closed Boise State −9.5 (2.0-pt gap). Power ratings: Boise State +9.1, Memphis -2.1. | Final · Memphis 20, Boise State 38Both had it |
| Sat Sep 19Wk 3 · 11:00 PM ET | PurdueatUCLA | UCLA84% | UCLA88% | 3.9 | Model line UCLA −12.3; market closed UCLA −14.5 (2.2-pt gap). Power ratings: UCLA +2.8, Purdue -4.0. | Upcoming |
| Sat Sep 19Wk 3 · 12:45 PM ET | NC StateatVanderbilt | Vanderbilt56% | Vanderbilt60% | 3.9 | Model line Vanderbilt −1.8; market closed Vanderbilt −3.0 (1.2-pt gap). Power ratings: Vanderbilt +3.7, NC State +3.5. | Upcoming |
| Sat Sep 19Wk 3 · 7:30 PM ET | West VirginiavsVirginianeutral site | Virginia83% | Virginia79% | 3.6 | Model line Virginia −11.6; market closed Virginia −10.0 (1.6-pt gap). Power ratings: Virginia +2.9, West Virginia -7.1. | Upcoming |
| Sat Sep 12Wk 2 · 3:30 PM ET | UCFatPittsburgh | Pittsburgh76% | Pittsburgh73% | 3.5 | Model line Pittsburgh −8.9; market closed Pittsburgh −7.5 (1.4-pt gap). Power ratings: Pittsburgh +2.7, UCF -3.0. | Final · UCF 7, Pittsburgh 12Both had it |
| Fri Sep 18Wk 3 · 8:00 PM ET | HoustonatTexas Tech | Texas Tech69% | Texas Tech73% | 3.5 | Model line Texas Tech −6.2; market closed Texas Tech −7.5 (1.3-pt gap). Power ratings: Texas Tech +10.7, Houston +6.4. | Upcoming |
| Fri Sep 11Wk 2 · 8:00 PM ET | MissouriatKansas | Missouri60% | Missouri63% | 3.0 | Model line Missouri −3.0; market closed Missouri −4.0 (1.0-pt gap). Power ratings: Kansas -1.5, Missouri +1.4. | Final · Missouri 38, Kansas 21Both had it |
| Sat Sep 12Wk 2 · 12:00 PM ET | Arizona StateatTexas A&M | Texas A&M87% | Texas A&M89% | 2.8 | Model line Texas A&M −13.8; market closed Texas A&M −15.5 (1.7-pt gap). Power ratings: Texas A&M +8.7, Arizona State +1.3. | Final · Arizona State 20, Texas A&M 48Both had it |
| Sat Sep 12Wk 2 · 3:45 PM ET | UNLVatNorth Texas | UNLV62% | UNLV60% | 2.6 | Model line UNLV −3.8; market closed UNLV −3.0 (0.8-pt gap). Power ratings: North Texas -1.2, UNLV -0.7. | Final · UNLV 6, North Texas 44Neither had it |
| Sat Sep 19Wk 3 · 1:00 PM ET | WyomingatCentral Michigan | Central Michigan57% | Central Michigan55% | 2.6 | Model line Central Michigan −2.3; market closed Central Michigan −1.5 (0.8-pt gap). Power ratings: Central Michigan -4.6, Wyoming -4.6. | Upcoming |
| Sat Sep 19Wk 3 · 12:00 PM ET | Kent StateatOhio State | Ohio State98% | Ohio State100% | 2.1 | Model line Ohio State −25.1; market closed Ohio State −53.0 (27.9-pt gap). Power ratings: Ohio State +15.2, Kent State -4.6. | Upcoming |
| Sat Sep 12Wk 2 · 7:45 PM ET | CharlotteatOle Miss | Ole Miss98% | Ole Miss100% | 2.1 | Model line Ole Miss −25.2; market closed Ole Miss −44.5 (19.3-pt gap). Power ratings: Ole Miss +7.6, Charlotte -9.6. | Final · Charlotte 9, Ole Miss 41Both had it |
| Thu Sep 17Wk 3 · 7:30 PM ET | SyracuseatPittsburgh | Pittsburgh81% | Pittsburgh79% | 2.0 | Model line Pittsburgh −10.9; market closed Pittsburgh −10.0 (0.9-pt gap). Power ratings: Pittsburgh +3.3, Syracuse -4.3. | Upcoming |
| Sat Sep 19Wk 3 · 4:00 PM ET | StanfordatDuke | Duke76% | Duke78% | 1.9 | Model line Duke −8.7; market closed Duke −9.5 (0.8-pt gap). Power ratings: Duke +0.6, Stanford -2.6. | Upcoming |
| Sat Sep 12Wk 2 · 11:59 PM ET | New Mexico StateatHawai'i | Hawai'i74% | Hawai'i73% | 1.3 | Model line Hawai'i −8.0; market closed Hawai'i −7.5 (0.5-pt gap). Power ratings: Hawai'i -0.5, New Mexico State -5.4. | Final · New Mexico State 19, Hawai'i 29Both had it |
| Sat Sep 12Wk 2 · 12:00 PM ET | OregonatOklahoma State | Oregon99% | Oregon98% | 1.1 | Model line Oregon −27.5; market closed Oregon −24.5 (3.0-pt gap). Power ratings: Oklahoma State -9.4, Oregon +13.4. | Final · Oregon 31, Oklahoma State 39Neither had it |
| Sat Sep 12Wk 2 · 7:30 PM ET | NavyatFlorida Atlantic | Navy65% | Navy64% | 1.1 | Model line Navy −4.9; market closed Navy −4.5 (0.4-pt gap). Power ratings: Florida Atlantic -1.4, Navy -0.5. | Final · Navy 30, Florida Atlantic 38Neither had it |
| Sat Sep 12Wk 2 · 7:30 PM ET | Ohio StateatTexas | Texas57% | Texas58% | 1.1 | Model line Texas −2.2; market closed Texas −2.5 (0.3-pt gap). Power ratings: Texas +11.9, Ohio State +10.1. | Final · Ohio State 23, Texas 24Both had it |
| Sat Sep 19Wk 3 · 12:00 PM ET | GeorgiaatArkansas | Georgia97% | Georgia98% | 0.8 | Model line Georgia −22.9; market closed Georgia −24.5 (1.6-pt gap). Power ratings: Arkansas -5.1, Georgia +14.9. | Upcoming |
| Sat Sep 19Wk 3 · 7:30 PM ET | Michigan StateatNotre Dame | Notre Dame98% | Notre Dame99% | 0.8 | Model line Notre Dame −26.6; market closed Notre Dame −30.0 (3.4-pt gap). Power ratings: Notre Dame +15.0, Michigan State -6.3. | Upcoming |
| Sat Sep 19Wk 3 · 7:00 PM ET | OhioatSouth Alabama | South Alabama63% | South Alabama64% | 0.7 | Model line South Alabama −4.3; market closed South Alabama −4.5 (0.2-pt gap). Power ratings: South Alabama +1.0, Ohio +2.2. | Upcoming |
| Sat Sep 19Wk 3 · 6:30 PM ET | MarshallatMissouri State | Marshall62% | Marshall61% | 0.7 | Model line Marshall −3.7; market closed Marshall −3.5 (0.2-pt gap). Power ratings: Missouri State -2.3, Marshall +5.0. | Upcoming |
| Sat Sep 12Wk 2 · 3:30 PM ET | RiceatNotre Dame | Notre Dame99% | Notre Dame100% | 0.6 | Model line Notre Dame −31.0; market closed Notre Dame −44.5 (13.5-pt gap). Power ratings: Notre Dame +12.3, Rice -9.5. | Final · Rice 0, Notre Dame 52Both had it |
| Sat Sep 19Wk 3 · 8:00 PM ET | UABatLouisiana | Louisiana72% | Louisiana73% | 0.5 | Model line Louisiana −7.3; market closed Louisiana −7.5 (0.2-pt gap). Power ratings: Louisiana +4.8, UAB +1.7. | Upcoming |
| Sat Sep 19Wk 3 · 12:00 PM ET | Arizona StatevsKansasneutral site | Arizona State67% | Arizona State67% | 0.3 | Model line Arizona State −5.6; market closed Arizona State −5.5 (0.1-pt gap). Power ratings: Kansas -0.6, Arizona State +3.6. | Upcoming |
Model probabilityMarket probabilityDifferent favorite
How we scored
Model: the home win probability from the most recent power-model run that has a number for that game. Market: the closing spread (the book's consensus line when one is stored, otherwise the average across books) converted to a win probability with the same normal-CDF formula the model itself uses, sigma 12.4 points. Gap: the absolute difference between the two, in percentage points. The "why" line only repeats numbers we store for that game (the two lines and the pre-game power ratings); when the model's own line is missing it stays blank rather than guess.
Only FBS-vs-FBS games with both numbers qualify. Finals show who was right in the narrow sense that the side's favorite won; a favorite winning is not the same thing as the probability being well calibrated.