Model receipts · 2026 season

Film Room

What our model saw that the scoreboard and the polls didn't. Archived per-game and week-by-week model history — the kind of receipts no other site keeps.

Scoreboard Lies

The model grades the performance, not the final score. These are the 2026 games where the two disagreed most.

Best Losses

resume delta in a loss · 2026

Defeats the model refused to punish — close fights with strong teams that still raised the resume.

L
UL Monroe vs UAB
Lost 20-26, but the model still credited the performance — its best loss of 2026.
+0.65
  1. 2UL MonroeL 20-26 vs UAB+0.65resume still rose
  2. 3UL MonroeL 20-26 vs UAB+0.65resume still rose
  3. 4UL MonroeL 20-26 vs UAB+0.65resume still rose
  4. 5UL MonroeL 20-26 vs UAB+0.65resume still rose
  5. 6UL MonroeL 20-26 vs UAB+0.65resume still rose
  6. 7UL MonroeL 20-26 vs UAB+0.65resume still rose
  7. 8UL MonroeL 20-26 vs UAB+0.65resume still rose
  8. 9UL MonroeL 20-26 vs UAB+0.65resume still rose
  9. 10UL MonroeL 20-26 vs UAB+0.65resume still rose

Worst Wins

resume delta in a win · 2026

Victories the model saw through — wins that quietly cost a team resume value.

W
LSU vs Louisiana Tech
Won 45-14, but the model docked it — the emptiest win of 2026.
-3.57
  1. 2LSUW 45-14 vs Louisiana Tech-3.57resume slipped
  2. 3LSUW 45-14 vs Louisiana Tech-3.57resume slipped
  3. 4LSUW 45-14 vs Louisiana Tech-3.57resume slipped
  4. 5LSUW 45-14 vs Louisiana Tech-3.57resume slipped
  5. 6LSUW 45-14 vs Louisiana Tech-3.57resume slipped
  6. 7LSUW 45-14 vs Louisiana Tech-3.57resume slipped
  7. 8LSUW 45-14 vs Louisiana Tech-3.57resume slipped
  8. 9LSUW 45-14 vs Louisiana Tech-3.57resume slipped
  9. 10LSUW 45-14 vs Louisiana Tech-3.57resume slipped

Heisman Truth Serum

Week-by-week, the Heisman model leaves a paper trail. Here's when it knew — and who it warmed to fastest.

When the Model Knew

first top-5 week · 2026

The week each contender first cracked the model's top five — its earliest reads on the race.

W1
The model had Mensah in its top five by Week 1 — earlier than the national conversation.
pk 4.9
  1. 2Darian MensahMiamiW1peak #1
  2. 3Darian MensahMiamiW1peak #1
  3. 4Darian MensahMiamiW1peak #1
  4. 5Darian MensahMiamiW1peak #1
  5. 6Darian MensahMiamiW1peak #1
  6. 7Darian MensahMiamiW1peak #1
  7. 8Darian MensahMiamiW1peak #1
  8. 9Darian MensahMiamiW1peak #1
  9. 10Darian MensahMiamiW1peak #1

Biggest Risers

rank climb, first→last week · 2026

Who the model warmed to most across the season — largest climb in Heisman rank.

↑
Aidan Chiles Northwestern
Climbed from #198 to #7 — the biggest Heisman-model riser of 2026.
+191
  1. 2Aidan ChilesNorthwestern+191#198→#7
  2. 3Aidan ChilesNorthwestern+191#198→#7
  3. 4Aidan ChilesNorthwestern+191#198→#7
  4. 5Aidan ChilesNorthwestern+190#198→#8
  5. 6Aidan ChilesNorthwestern+190#198→#8
  6. 7Aidan ChilesNorthwestern+190#198→#8
  7. 8Aidan ChilesNorthwestern+190#198→#8
  8. 9Aidan ChilesNorthwestern+189#196→#7
  9. 10Aidan ChilesNorthwestern+188#196→#8