Model receipts · 2026 season

Film Room

What our model saw that the scoreboard and the polls didn't. Archived per-game and week-by-week model history — the kind of receipts no other site keeps.

Scoreboard Lies

The model grades the performance, not the final score. These are the 2026 games where the two disagreed most.

Best Losses

resume delta in a loss · 2026

Defeats the model refused to punish — close fights with strong teams that still raised the resume.

L
UL Monroe vs UAB
Lost 20-26, but the model still credited the performance — its best loss of 2026.
+0.64
  1. 2UL MonroeL 20-26 vs UAB+0.64resume still rose
  2. 3UL MonroeL 20-26 vs UAB+0.51resume still rose
  3. 4Utah StateL 14-16 vs Washington+0.50resume still rose
  4. 5Utah StateL 14-16 vs Washington+0.50resume still rose
  5. 6UL MonroeL 20-26 vs UAB+0.50resume still rose
  6. 7Utah StateL 14-16 vs Washington+0.48resume still rose
  7. 8Utah StateL 14-16 vs Washington+0.48resume still rose
  8. 9Western KentuckyL 20-70 vs Georgia+0.42resume still rose
  9. 10Western KentuckyL 20-70 vs Georgia+0.42resume still rose

Worst Wins

resume delta in a win · 2026

Victories the model saw through — wins that quietly cost a team resume value.

W
LSU vs Louisiana Tech
Won 45-14, but the model docked it — the emptiest win of 2026.
-3.50
  1. 2LSUW 45-14 vs Louisiana Tech-3.50resume slipped
  2. 3Penn StateW 27-9 vs Temple-1.97resume slipped
  3. 4Penn StateW 27-9 vs Temple-1.97resume slipped
  4. 5VirginiaW 59-3 vs Norfolk State-1.27resume slipped
  5. 6VirginiaW 59-3 vs Norfolk State-1.27resume slipped
  6. 7AuburnW 43-8 vs Southern Miss-1.09resume slipped
  7. 8AuburnW 43-8 vs Southern Miss-1.09resume slipped
  8. 9North CarolinaW 35-3 vs East Tennessee State-1.09resume slipped
  9. 10North CarolinaW 35-3 vs East Tennessee State-1.09resume slipped

Heisman Truth Serum

Week-by-week, the Heisman model leaves a paper trail. Here's when it knew — and who it warmed to fastest.

When the Model Knew

first top-5 week · 2026

The week each contender first cracked the model's top five — its earliest reads on the race.

W1
The model had Mensah in its top five by Week 1 — earlier than the national conversation.
pk 4.3
  1. 2Darian MensahMiamiW1peak #1
  2. 3Darian MensahMiamiW1peak #1
  3. 4Darian MensahMiamiW1peak #1
  4. 5Darian MensahMiamiW1peak #1
  5. 6Darian MensahMiamiW1peak #1
  6. 7Darian MensahMiamiW1peak #1
  7. 8Darian MensahMiamiW1peak #1
  8. 9Darian MensahMiamiW1peak #1
  9. 10Darian MensahMiamiW1peak #1

Biggest Risers

rank climb, first→last week · 2026

Who the model warmed to most across the season — largest climb in Heisman rank.

Climbed from #199 to #2 — the biggest Heisman-model riser of 2026.
+197
  1. 2Bear BachmeierBYU+197#199→#2
  2. 3Bear BachmeierBYU+197#199→#2
  3. 4Owen McCownUTSA+185#193→#8
  4. 5Owen McCownUTSA+184#193→#9
  5. 6Owen McCownUTSA+184#193→#9
  6. 7Bear BachmeierBYU+184#186→#2
  7. 8Bear BachmeierBYU+184#186→#2
  8. 9Bear BachmeierBYU+184#186→#2
  9. 10Bear BachmeierBYU+184#186→#2