CFB Zeitgeist · Fan Intelligence · Capsule

The 2026-06 Capsule

Talking Season, Frozen. A frozen snapshot of what college-football fandom sounded like — belief, obsession, aura, and delusion — preserved exactly as it stood. The 2025 conversation, bottled.

Sealed 2026-06-11Season 2025Frozen: never rebuilt from live data.

The Backometer — who believed

Belief score placed on the real 5-zone scale (so_over 0-20 · cooked 20-40 · uneasy 40-60 · cooking 60-80 · so_back 80-100)

Notre Dame
60.1
Cooking
n = 298
Ohio State
58.5
Uneasy
n = 220
Miami
53.4
Uneasy
n = 232

Rent Free — who lived in whose head

Mention split within each rivalry — the fuller the bar, the more one-sided the obsession

Red River Rivalry
Oklahomalives rent free in Texas
83 mentions vs 0
Sunshine Showdown
Floridalives rent free in Florida State
209 mentions 69.7× 3
Oregon-Oregon State
Oregon Statelives rent free in Oregon
50 mentions vs 0
USC-Notre Dame
Notre Damelives rent free in USC
41 mentions vs 0
Commonwealth Cup
Virginialives rent free in Virginia Tech
33 mentions vs 1
Freedom Trophy
Wisconsinlives rent free in Nebraska
31 mentions vs 0

Him Watch — the aura board

Perception (gold) vs. production (blue) on a 0-100 scale — the wider the gap, the bigger the aura tax

Most aura

Brendan SorsbyQB+8
Mark Fletcher Jr.RB+16
Bryce UnderwoodQB+35
LJ MartinRB+21
Drew AllarQB+24
Dante MooreQB+2

Overhyped

Jamal HaynesRB+89
Joe JacksonRB+86
Jamarion MillerRB+68
Nate FrazierRB+61
Nico IamaleavaQB+59
Ashton DanielsQB+57

Underrated

Jayden MaiavaQB−20
Jalon DanielsQB−19
PerceptionProduction

Delusion Premium — belief vs the market

Fan belief score (x) vs. sportsbook title odds (y) — the further a crest sits from the dashed line, the bigger the gap between what fans felt and what the market priced

Market agrees or leads Fans ahead of the market 0%25%51%76% 0255176 Fan belief score → Georgia: fan belief 57, market 5%, gap +40 (delusional) Oregon: fan belief 59, market 17%, gap +20 (bullish) Notre Dame: fan belief 60, market 19%, gap +20 (bullish) LSU: fan belief 54, market 10%, gap +20 (bullish) Michigan: fan belief 66, market 24%, gap +10 (bullish) Ohio State: fan belief 58, market 20%, gap -10 (bullish) Alabama: fan belief 53, market 14%, gap -10 (bullish) Miami: fan belief 53, market 17%, gap -10 (bullish) Texas: fan belief 58, market 48%, gap -40 (sharp) Texas A&M: fan belief 53, market 17%, gap -40 (sharp)
DelusionalBullishSharp
Biggest gaps
Georgia+40
Texas-40
Texas A&M-40
Oregon+20
Notre Dame+20
LSU+20

The words of the moment

Corpus-wide term frequency, trailing 60 days

1portal502
2elite418
3tampering66
4natty54
5locked in36
6cooked27
7hot seat11
8rev share9
9delusional9
10so back6
Source: data/capsules/2026-06.json, committed once and never rebuilt. Hover states above respond to your cursor; the underlying numbers do not respond to anything.
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