CFB Zeitgeist · Fan Intelligence · Capsule

The 2026-07 Capsule

Talking Season, Frozen. A frozen snapshot of what college-football fandom sounded like — belief, obsession, aura, and delusion — preserved exactly as it stood. The 2026 conversation, bottled.

Sealed 2026-07-13Season 2026Frozen: never rebuilt from live data.

The Backometer — who believed

Belief score placed on the real 5-zone scale (so_over 0-20 · cooked 20-40 · uneasy 40-60 · cooking 60-80 · so_back 80-100)

Michigan
59.4
Cooking
n = 454
Notre Dame
58.2
Uneasy
n = 475
Texas
54.4
Uneasy
n = 506
Nebraska
54.2
Uneasy
n = 412
Florida State
53.6
Uneasy
n = 277
Georgia
53.1
Uneasy
n = 415

Rent Free — who lived in whose head

Mention split within each rivalry — the fuller the bar, the more one-sided the obsession

Texas Tech vs Texas
Texaslives rent free in Texas Tech
26 mentions 27% vs 3% 3
Texas A&M vs Texas
Texaslives rent free in Texas A&M
11 mentions 22% vs 6% 7
Georgia vs Florida
Floridalives rent free in Georgia
11 mentions 13% vs 3% 3
Tennessee vs Alabama
Alabamalives rent free in Tennessee
3 mentions 10% vs 4% 3
Nebraska vs Wisconsin
Wisconsinlives rent free in Nebraska
14 mentions 18% vs 16% 9
Notre Dame vs Michigan
Michiganlives rent free in Notre Dame
8 mentions 6% vs 4% 5

Him Watch — the aura board

Perception (gold) vs. production (blue) on a 0-100 scale — the wider the gap, the bigger the aura tax

Most aura

Brendan SorsbyQB+8
Brendan SorsbyQB+8
Brendan SorsbyQB+8
Brendan SorsbyQB+8
LJ MartinRB+22
Mark Fletcher Jr.RB+16

Overhyped

Jamal HaynesRB+92
Jamal HaynesRB+92
Jamal HaynesRB+89
Jamal HaynesRB+88
Joe JacksonRB+86
Joe JacksonRB+86

Underrated

Joe FagnanoQB−31
Joe FagnanoQB−29
Joe FagnanoQB−29
Blake ShapenQB−27
Blake ShapenQB−26
Demond Williams Jr.QB−26
PerceptionProduction

Delusion Premium — belief vs the market

Fan belief score (x) vs. sportsbook title odds (y) — the further a crest sits from the dashed line, the bigger the gap between what fans felt and what the market priced

Market agrees or leads Fans ahead of the market 0%25%49%74% 0254974 Fan belief score → Michigan: fan belief 61, market 2%, gap +50 (delusional) Miami: fan belief 64, market 4%, gap +50 (delusional) Alabama: fan belief 62, market 4%, gap +40 (delusional) Texas A&M: fan belief 58, market 4%, gap +20 (bullish) Oregon: fan belief 63, market 9%, gap +10 (bullish) LSU: fan belief 64, market 37%, gap +0 (bullish) Texas: fan belief 58, market 6%, gap -10 (bullish) Georgia: fan belief 53, market 5%, gap -30 (sharp) Notre Dame: fan belief 54, market 17%, gap -60 (sharp) Ohio State: fan belief 51, market 10%, gap -70 (sharp)
DelusionalBullishSharp
Biggest gaps
Ohio State-70
Notre Dame-60
Michigan+50
Miami+50
Alabama+40
Georgia-30

The words of the moment

Corpus-wide term frequency, trailing 60 days

1portal1833
2elite1702
3natty386
4locked in206
5cooked128
6hot seat90
7tampering86
8fraud59
9delusional57
10rev share45
Source: data/capsules/2026-07.json, committed once and never rebuilt. Hover states above respond to your cursor; the underlying numbers do not respond to anything.
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