CFB Zeitgeist · Fan intelligence · Capsule

The 2026-10 Capsule

Talking Season, Frozen. A frozen snapshot of what college-football fandom sounded like — belief, obsession, aura, and delusion — preserved exactly as it stood. The 2026 conversation, bottled.

Sealed 2026-10-01Season 2026Frozen: never rebuilt from live data.

The Backometer: who believed

Belief score placed on the real 5-zone scale (so_over 0-20 · cooked 20-40 · uneasy 40-60 · cooking 60-80 · so_back 80-100)

Florida
61.8
UNEASY
n = 1431
Kentucky
59.4
UNEASY
n = 321
Nebraska
58.7
UNEASY
n = 1478
Iowa
58.5
UNEASY
n = 632
Virginia Tech
56.4
UNEASY
n = 461
North Carolina
55.2
UNEASY
n = 318

Rent Free: who lived in whose head

Mention split within each rivalry — the fuller the bar, the more one-sided the obsession

Oklahoma State vs Oklahoma
Oklahomalives rent free in Oklahoma State
25 mentions 27% vs 1% 8
Kansas vs Missouri
Missourilives rent free in Kansas
46 mentions 26% vs 4% 9
Oregon State vs Oregon
Oregonlives rent free in Oregon State
16 mentions 24% vs 2% 24
Michigan State vs Michigan
Michiganlives rent free in Michigan State
80 mentions 22% vs 2% 35
Oklahoma vs Texas
Texaslives rent free in Oklahoma
132 mentions 24% vs 3% 71
South Carolina vs Clemson
Clemsonlives rent free in South Carolina
103 mentions 22% vs 2% 3

Him Watch: the aura board

Perception (gold) vs. production (blue) on a 0-100 scale — the wider the gap, the bigger the aura tax

Most aura

Arch ManningQB+35
Trinidad ChamblissQB+4
Keelon RussellQB+6
Sam LeavittQB+13
John MateerQB+15
Julian SayinQB−8

Overhyped

Marcel ReedQB+73
Byrum BrownQB+54
Nico IamaleavaQB+50
Alberto MendozaQB+46
Drew MestemakerQB+42
Arch ManningQB+35

Underrated

Malachi SingletonQB−77
Deuce BaileyQB−54
Landyn LockeQB−54
Roman GaglianoQB−50
Jayden MandalQB−44
Tayven JacksonQB−44
PerceptionProduction

Delusion Premium: belief vs the market

Fan belief score (x) vs. sportsbook title odds (y) — the further a crest sits from the dashed line, the bigger the gap between what fans felt and what the market priced

Market agrees or leads Fans ahead of the market 0%25%49%74% 0254974 Fan belief score → Michigan: fan belief 61, market 2%, gap +50 (delusional) Miami: fan belief 64, market 4%, gap +50 (delusional) Alabama: fan belief 62, market 4%, gap +40 (delusional) Texas A&M: fan belief 58, market 4%, gap +20 (bullish) Oregon: fan belief 63, market 9%, gap +10 (bullish) LSU: fan belief 64, market 37%, gap +0 (bullish) Texas: fan belief 58, market 6%, gap -10 (bullish) Georgia: fan belief 53, market 5%, gap -30 (sharp) Notre Dame: fan belief 54, market 17%, gap -60 (sharp) Ohio State: fan belief 51, market 10%, gap -70 (sharp)
DelusionalBullishSharp
Biggest gaps
Ohio State-70
Notre Dame-60
Michigan+50
Miami+50
Alabama+40
Georgia-30

The words of the moment

Corpus-wide term frequency, trailing 60 days

1portal4009
2elite3904
3natty2635
4locked in688
5hot seat640
6aura623
7delusional474
8cooked450
9fraud423
10so back361
Source: data/capsules/2026-10.json, committed once and never rebuilt. Hover states above respond to your cursor; the underlying numbers do not respond to anything.
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