Regular season ·

Florida State beat Florida

Florida6-638
No. 16 Florida State9-345Final
Fri, Nov 25 · Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, Fla. · Crowd 79,560 · 66°, overcastABC

Records are after this game. Rankings are the AP poll before it.

No. 16 Florida State beat Florida by 7 points.

How the game turned

Florida State aheadFlorida aheadBiggest swingLow: 45%
1234567

Q4 4:06 Florida State 45, Florida 38

Florida State 90% to win

Benson 17-yd TD run, Florida State goes ahead 45-38

Big moments

  1. 1Q1 11:30 · Florida State 7, Florida 0Benson 9-yd TD run, Florida State goes ahead 7-0
  2. 2Q1 4:06 · Florida State 7, Florida 14Florida State's win chance fell from 62% to 55%.Richardson 12-yd TD pass to Odom, Florida goes ahead 14-7
  3. 3Q2 9:25 · Florida State 14, Florida 21Florida State's win chance fell from 66% to 49%.Richardson 43-yd TD pass to Pearsall, Florida goes ahead 21-14
  4. 4Q2 0:42 · Florida State 21, Florida 24Florida State's win chance fell from 62% to 59%.Mihalek 41-yd field goal, Florida goes ahead 24-21
  5. 5Q3 4:21 · Florida State 31, Florida 24Florida State's win chance rose from 63% to 88%.Benson 1-yd TD run, Florida State goes ahead 31-24
  6. 6Q4 7:41 · Florida State 38, Florida 38Florida State's win chance fell from 88% to 69%.Etienne 45-yd TD run, ties it 38-38
  7. 7Q4 4:06 · Florida State 45, Florida 38Florida State's win chance rose from 63% to 90%.Benson 17-yd TD run, Florida State goes ahead 45-38

Florida State's lowest chance to win was 45 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.

The biggest swing

With 4:06 left in the 4th quarter, Florida State's chance to win went from 63 percent to 90 percent when Florida State scored a touchdown.

The score went from Florida State 38, Florida 38 to Florida State 45, Florida 38.

The play: Benson 17-yd TD run, Florida State goes ahead 45-38.

It was Florida State's first win over Florida since the 2017 season, after 3 straight losses in the series, counted since 1970 in our games data.

What happened next

  1. Florida's next game: L 3-30 vs Oregon State in the Srs Distribution Las Vegas Bowl, Dec 17

    22 days later

  2. Florida State's next game: W 35-32 vs Oklahoma in the Cheez-It Bowl, Dec 29

    34 days later

  3. The teams' next meeting after Nov 25, 2022: Florida State 24, Florida 15, Nov 25, 2023

    about 12 months later

Related pages

Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.

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