Regular season ·
Minnesota beat USC
Records are after this game.
Minnesota had a 4 percent chance to win with 12:13 left in the 4th quarter, by our win chance curve, and won 24-17, October 5, 2024.
How the game turned
Q4 0:56 Minnesota 24, USC 17
Minnesota 61% to win
Brosmer 1-yd TD run, Minnesota goes ahead 24-17
Big moments
- 1Q1 0:05 · Minnesota 3, USC 0Kesich 32-yd field goal, Minnesota goes ahead 3-0
- 2Q2 7:13 · Minnesota 3, USC 7Minnesota's win chance fell from 32% to 22%.Moss 3-yd TD pass to Robinson, USC goes ahead 7-3
- 3Q2 4:05 · Minnesota 10, USC 7Minnesota's win chance rose from 27% to 31%.Brosmer 1-yd TD run, Minnesota goes ahead 10-7
- 4Q3 5:47 · Minnesota 10, USC 17Minnesota's win chance fell from 38% to 13%.Marks 1-yd TD run, USC goes ahead 17-10
- 5Q4 7:08 · Minnesota 17, USC 17Minnesota's win chance rose from 16% to 30%.Brosmer 5-yd TD run, ties it 17-17
- 6Q4 0:56 · Minnesota 24, USC 17Brosmer 1-yd TD run, Minnesota goes ahead 24-17
Minnesota's lowest chance to win was 4 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.
How the lead changed
Minnesota took the lead for good with 0:56 left in the 4th quarter, Minnesota 24, USC 17.
It was Minnesota's first win over USC since 1970 in our games data, after 4 straight losses in the series.
What happened next
Minnesota's next game: W 21-17 at UCLA, Oct 12
7 days laterUSC's next game: L 30-33 vs Penn State, Oct 12
7 days later
Related pages
Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.