The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Troy Taylor

Followed David Shaw. Troy Taylor slid Stanford from National Program I to National Program II in 2 seasons.

6–18
2023–2024 · 1 stint
Stanford
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Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerSTANFORDNational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelStanford, 2023: 3-9, National Program II2023Stanford, 2024: 3-9, National Program II2024-5.9One point per coached season, in career order; dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Reached National Program in his 1st career season — faster than 41% of the 675 FBS coaches who have ever reached National Program (rank #1 of 675 by seasons-to-arrival).

Stanford, 2 seasons
−5.9
National Program II → National Program II.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

50%Stanford2023–2024▼ 4.8pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

0–4 against his rivals.

Rivalry record
0–4
0.0% · 2 rivals
One-score games
4–5
44.4% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
0–1
0.0%
Rivalry ledger
California0–20%
Notre Dame0–20%
Performance by opponent class
Blue Blood
0–1 0.0%
Power Program
1–6 14.3%
National Program
1–8 11.1%
Regional Program
3–1 75.0%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
-0.26
#255 of 319 · less than most
Defense marginal impact
-0.38
#310 of 325 · less than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2023–2024
Stanfordcaretaker
National Program I → National Program II
Troy Taylor slid Stanford from National Program I to National Program II in 2 seasons.

17th-best Stanford tenure of 20 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Underperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent
-37.0 pts
#207 of 208 · less than most
Defense vs. talent
-43.5 pts
#208 of 208 · less than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed David Shaw (2011–2022) · succeeded by Frank Reich (2025–2025).

Season20232024Trend
Record & result
Record3–93–9
Postseason——
Recruiting rank#46#30
Style — pass rate
Pass rate50.846.0
Coordinators
OCTroy Taylor—
DCBobby AprilBobby April
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense1226
Defense322
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%51.845.4
Red-zone pass%38.236.9
4th-down go%opp. territory27.552.4
Roster construction · portal era

Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.

Portal arrivals
8
2.9★ avg rating
Portal departures
35
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-27
#173 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)
6′3″, 254 lbs
across 8 of 8 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+7.0 lbs
#49 of 255 · more than most
Avg. class year
Sr
#46 of 255 · more than most
Top states: CA (3), FL (2), TX (2), IA (1)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
31.1
position-weighted
Talent lost
54.7
position-weighted
Net
-23.5
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Justin Lamson (QB) from Syracuse
Biggest loss: Ari Patu (QB) to North Alabama
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
215 lbs
6′2″ avg · #324 of 767 · a typical amount
Running back
211 lbs
5′10″ avg · #258 of 791 · a typical amount
Wide receiver
200 lbs
6′1″ avg · #117 of 791 · more than most
Tight end
256 lbs
6′5″ avg · #61 of 731 · more than most
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
305 lbs
6′5″ avg · #569 of 779 · a typical amount
D-line
282 lbs
6′3″ avg · #420 of 753 · a typical amount
Linebacker
237 lbs
6′2″ avg · #72 of 772 · more than most
Cornerback
194 lbs
6′0″ avg · #177 of 771 · more than most
Safety
200 lbs
6′1″ avg · #102 of 346 · a typical amount
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows D-line from high school
80%
#186 of 239 stints
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints

7 NFL Draft picks: Michael Wilson (2023), Kyu Blu Kelly (2023), Tanner McKee (2023), Elijah Higgins (2023), Kendall Williamson (2023), Joshua Karty (2024), Elic Ayomanor (2025)

1 player-season honored (All-America / national award): Joshua Karty (2023)

6–18
How to read this. Bands and archetypes come from the Zeitgeist List’s season-by-season stature model, and only apply once a stint clears 3 coached seasons in our ledger — a newer stint shows its real record with no stature judgment yet.