Regular season ·

NC State beat Pittsburgh

NC State2-130
No. 24 Pittsburgh3-129Final
Sat, Oct 3 · Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, Pa. · 58°, mainly clearACC Network

Records are after this game. Rankings are the AP poll before it.

NC State had a 5 percent chance to win in the 4th quarter, by our win chance curve, and won 30-29, October 3, 2020.

How the game turned

NC State aheadPittsburgh aheadBiggest swingLow: 5%
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Q4 0:23 NC State 30, Pittsburgh 29

NC State 44% to win

Leary 13-yd TD pass to Emezie, two-point try fails, NC State goes ahead 30-29

Big moments

  1. 1Q1 14:32 · NC State 0, Pittsburgh 7NC State's win chance fell from 14% to 11%.Pickett 75-yd TD pass to Addison, Pittsburgh goes ahead 7-0
  2. 2Q1 1:20 · NC State 10, Pittsburgh 7NC State's win chance rose from 23% to 24%.Dunn 39-yd field goal, NC State goes ahead 10-7
  3. 3Q3 1:11 · NC State 17, Pittsburgh 20NC State's win chance fell from 32% to 18%.Pickett 1-yd TD run, Pittsburgh goes ahead 20-17
  4. 4Q4 8:16 · NC State 24, Pittsburgh 23NC State's win chance rose from 10% to 30%.Leary 25-yd TD pass to Angeline, NC State goes ahead 24-23
  5. 5Q4 1:44 · NC State 24, Pittsburgh 29Pickett 1-yd TD run, two-point try fails, Pittsburgh goes ahead 29-24
  6. 6Q4 0:23 · NC State 30, Pittsburgh 29NC State's win chance rose from 23% to 44%.Leary 13-yd TD pass to Emezie, two-point try fails, NC State goes ahead 30-29

NC State's lowest chance to win was 5 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.

The biggest swing

With 0:23 left in the 4th quarter, NC State's chance to win went from 23 percent to 44 percent when NC State scored a touchdown.

The score went from NC State 24, Pittsburgh 29 to NC State 30, Pittsburgh 29.

The play: Leary 13-yd TD pass to Emezie, two-point try fails, NC State goes ahead 30-29.

What happened next

  1. NC State's next game: W 38-21 at Virginia, Oct 10

    7 days later

  2. Pittsburgh's next game: L 30-31 at Boston College, Oct 10

    7 days later

  3. The teams' next meeting after Oct 3, 2020: Pittsburgh 53, NC State 34, Oct 25, 2025

    about 5 years later

Related pages

Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.

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