Regular season ·

Ole Miss beat Kentucky

Ole Miss1-142
Kentucky0-241Final
Sat, Oct 3 · Kroger Field, Lexington, Ky. · Crowd 12,000 · 64°, partly cloudySEC Network

Records are after this game.

Ole Miss had a 8 percent chance to win with 10:41 left in the 3rd quarter, by our win chance curve, and won 42-41 in overtime, October 3, 2020.

How the game turned

Ole Miss aheadKentucky aheadBiggest swingLow: 8%
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OT1 Ole Miss 42, Kentucky 41

Ole Miss 100% to win

Corral 3-yd TD pass to Moore, Ole Miss wins it 42-41

Big moments

  1. 1Q1 12:38 · Ole Miss 7, Kentucky 0Ole Miss's win chance rose from 45% to 49%.Ealy 1-yd TD run, Ole Miss goes ahead 7-0
  2. 2Q1 1:33 · Ole Miss 7, Kentucky 14Ole Miss's win chance fell from 27% to 22%.Rose 2-yd TD run, Kentucky goes ahead 14-7
  3. 3Q2 0:29 · Ole Miss 14, Kentucky 21Ole Miss's win chance fell from 38% to 25%.Wilson 22-yd TD run, Kentucky goes ahead 21-14
  4. 4Q4 8:23 · Ole Miss 35, Kentucky 28Ole Miss's win chance rose from 43% to 83%.Conner 1-yd TD run, Ole Miss goes ahead 35-28
  5. 5Q4 2:04 · Ole Miss 35, Kentucky 35Ole Miss's win chance fell from 81% to 48%.Rodriguez 1-yd TD run, ties it 35-35
  6. 6OT1 · Ole Miss 35, Kentucky 41Ole Miss's win chance fell from 42% to 35%.Wilson 10-yd TD run, Kentucky goes ahead 41-35
  7. 7OT1 · Ole Miss 42, Kentucky 41Ole Miss's win chance rose from 54% to 100%.Corral 3-yd TD pass to Moore, Ole Miss wins it 42-41

Ole Miss's lowest chance to win was 8 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.

The biggest swing

In overtime, Ole Miss's chance to win went from 53 percent to 99 percent when Ole Miss scored a touchdown.

The score went from Ole Miss 35, Kentucky 41 to Ole Miss 42, Kentucky 41.

The play: Corral 3-yd TD pass to Moore, Ole Miss wins it 42-41.

What happened next

  1. Ole Miss's next game: L 48-63 vs Alabama, Oct 10

    7 days later

  2. Kentucky's next game: W 24-2 vs Mississippi State, Oct 10

    7 days later

  3. The teams' next meeting after Oct 3, 2020: Ole Miss 22, Kentucky 19, Oct 1, 2022

    about 24 months later

Related pages

Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.

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