Regular season ·

Texas A&M beat Florida

No. 4 Florida2-138
No. 21 Texas A&M2-141Final
Sat, Oct 10 · Kyle Field, College Station, Texas · Crowd 24,709 · 79°, clearESPN

Records are after this game. Rankings are the AP poll before it.

Texas A&M had a 7 percent chance to win with 9:10 left in the 3rd quarter, by our win chance curve, and won 41-38, October 10, 2020.

Texas A&M was No. 21 and Florida No. 4 in the AP poll before the game.

How the game turned

Texas A&M aheadFlorida aheadLow: 7%
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Q4 0:01 Texas A&M 41, Florida 38

Texas A&M 100% to win

Small 26-yd field goal, Texas A&M wins it 41-38

Big moments

  1. 1Q1 7:32 · Texas A&M 0, Florida 7Texas A&M's win chance fell from 32% to 22%.Trask 5-yd TD pass to Pitts, Florida goes ahead 7-0
  2. 2Q1 (no clock) · Texas A&M 7, Florida 14Texas A&M's win chance fell from 31% to 22%.Trask 11-yd TD pass to Toney, Florida goes ahead 14-7
  3. 3Q2 4:14 · Texas A&M 14, Florida 21Texas A&M's win chance fell from 33% to 22%.Wright 1-yd TD run, Florida goes ahead 21-14
  4. 4Q4 12:35 · Texas A&M 31, Florida 28Texas A&M's win chance rose from 55% to 62%.Spiller 19-yd TD run, Texas A&M goes ahead 31-28
  5. 5Q4 6:14 · Texas A&M 31, Florida 38Texas A&M's win chance fell from 45% to 24%.Trask 1-yd TD pass to Pierce, Florida goes ahead 38-31
  6. 6Q4 4:30 · Texas A&M 38, Florida 38Texas A&M's win chance rose from 26% to 42%.Mond 51-yd TD pass to Chapman, ties it 38-38
  7. 7Q4 0:01 · Texas A&M 41, Florida 38Texas A&M's win chance rose from 78% to 100%.Small 26-yd field goal, Texas A&M wins it 41-38

Texas A&M's lowest chance to win was 7 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.

How the lead changed

Texas A&M took the lead for good with 0:01 left in the 4th quarter, Texas A&M 41, Florida 38.

What happened next

  1. Texas A&M went from No. 21 to No. 11 in the next AP poll.

  2. Texas A&M's next game: W 28-14 at Mississippi State, Oct 17

    7 days later

  3. Florida's next game: W 41-17 vs Missouri, Oct 31

    21 days later

  4. The teams' next meeting after Oct 10, 2020: Florida 41, Texas A&M 24, Nov 5, 2022

    about 2 years later

Related pages

Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.

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