Regular season ·
LSU beat Texas A&M
Records are after this game. Rankings are the AP poll before it.
LSU had a 8 percent chance to win with 1:29 left in the 4th quarter, by our win chance curve, and won 27-24, November 27, 2021.
How the game turned
Q4 0:20 LSU 27, Texas A&M 24
LSU 53% to win
Johnson 28-yd TD pass to Jenkins, LSU goes ahead 27-24
Big moments
- 1Q1 8:38 · LSU 3, Texas A&M 0LSU's win chance rose from 35% to 39%.York 50-yd field goal, LSU goes ahead 3-0
- 2Q2 4:31 · LSU 10, Texas A&M 7LSU's win chance fell from 62% to 48%.Calzada 13-yd TD pass to Muhammad, cuts it to 10-7
- 3Q4 14:22 · LSU 20, Texas A&M 17LSU's win chance fell from 78% to 61%.Calzada 15-yd TD pass to Preston, cuts it to 20-17
- 4Q4 7:33 · LSU 20, Texas A&M 24LSU's win chance fell from 45% to 22%.Calzada 32-yd TD pass to Preston, Texas A&M goes ahead 24-20
- 5Q4 0:20 · LSU 27, Texas A&M 24LSU's win chance rose from 23% to 53%.Johnson 28-yd TD pass to Jenkins, LSU goes ahead 27-24
LSU's lowest chance to win was 8 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.
The biggest swing
With 0:20 left in the 4th quarter, LSU's chance to win went from 23 percent to 53 percent when LSU scored a touchdown.
The score went from LSU 20, Texas A&M 24 to LSU 27, Texas A&M 24.
The play: Johnson 28-yd TD pass to Jenkins, LSU goes ahead 27-24.
What happened next
Texas A&M went from No. 14 to No. 24 in the next AP poll.
Texas A&M finished the 2021 season 8-4, No. 23 in the last AP poll before the bowls.
LSU's next game: L 20-42 vs Kansas State in the Taxact Texas Bowl, Jan 4
38 days laterTexas A&M's first game of the 2022 season: W 31-0 vs Sam Houston, Sep 3, 2022
about 9 months laterThe teams' next meeting after Nov 27, 2021: Texas A&M 38, LSU 23, Nov 26, 2022
about 12 months later
Related pages
Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.