Regular season ·
Florida State beat Miami
Records are after this game.
Florida State had a 9 percent chance to win with 9:09 left in the 4th quarter, by our win chance curve, and won 31-28, November 13, 2021.
How the game turned
Q4 0:26 Florida State 31, Miami 28
Florida State 74% to win
Travis 1-yd TD run, two-point try good, Florida State goes ahead 31-28
Big moments
- 1Q1 9:50 · Florida State 7, Miami 0Florida State's win chance rose from 49% to 59%.Travis 2-yd TD run, Florida State goes ahead 7-0
- 2Q2 0:00 · Florida State 20, Miami 7Florida State's win chance rose from 76% to 88%.Fitzgerald 27-yd field goal, Florida State leads 20-7
- 3Q4 14:56 · Florida State 20, Miami 21Florida State's win chance fell from 67% to 40%.Van Dyke 4-yd TD pass to Mallory, Miami goes ahead 21-20
- 4Q4 0:26 · Florida State 31, Miami 28Florida State's win chance rose from 31% to 74%.Travis 1-yd TD run, two-point try good, Florida State goes ahead 31-28
Florida State's lowest chance to win was 9 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.
The biggest swing
With 0:26 left in the 4th quarter, Florida State's chance to win went from 31 percent to 74 percent when Florida State scored a touchdown.
The score went from Florida State 23, Miami 28 to Florida State 31, Miami 28.
The play: Travis 1-yd TD run, two-point try good, Florida State goes ahead 31-28.
It was Florida State's first win over Miami since the 2016 season, after 4 straight losses in the series, counted since 1970 in our games data.
What happened next
Florida State's next game: W 26-23 at Boston College, Nov 20
7 days laterMiami's next game: W 38-26 vs Virginia Tech, Nov 20
7 days laterThe teams' next meeting after Nov 13, 2021: Florida State 45, Miami 3, Nov 5, 2022
about 12 months later
Related pages
Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.