Regular season ·

Central Michigan beat Western Michigan

Central Michigan5-442
Western Michigan5-430Final
Wed, Nov 3 · Waldo Stadium, Kalamazoo, Mich. · Crowd 13,137 · 37°, overcastESPNU

Records are after this game.

Central Michigan beat Western Michigan by 12 points.

How the game turned

Central Michigan aheadWestern Michigan aheadBiggest swingLow: 5%
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Q2 0:03 Central Michigan 21, Western Michigan 14

Central Michigan 49% to win

Pimpleton punt return TD, Central Michigan goes ahead 21-14

Big moments

  1. 1Q1 (no clock) · Central Michigan 0, Western Michigan 7Central Michigan's win chance fell from 23% to 11%.Tyler 11-yd TD run, Western Michigan goes ahead 7-0
  2. 2Q2 5:03 · Central Michigan 7, Western Michigan 14Central Michigan's win chance rose from 6% to 17%.Pimpleton punt return TD, cuts it to 14-7
  3. 3Q2 0:03 · Central Michigan 21, Western Michigan 14Central Michigan's win chance rose from 20% to 49%.Pimpleton punt return TD, Central Michigan goes ahead 21-14
  4. 4Q3 7:19 · Central Michigan 28, Western Michigan 17Central Michigan's win chance rose from 69% to 83%.Nichols 8-yd TD run, Central Michigan leads 28-17
  5. 5Q4 12:57 · Central Michigan 35, Western Michigan 24Central Michigan's win chance rose from 65% to 88%.Nichols 5-yd TD run, Central Michigan leads 35-24

Central Michigan's lowest chance to win was 5 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.

The biggest swing

With 0:03 left in the 2nd quarter, Central Michigan's chance to win went from 20 percent to 49 percent when Central Michigan scored a touchdown.

The score went from Central Michigan 14, Western Michigan 14 to Central Michigan 21, Western Michigan 14.

The play: Pimpleton punt return TD, Central Michigan goes ahead 21-14.

It was Central Michigan's first win over Western Michigan since the 2017 season, after 3 straight losses in the series, counted since 1970 in our games data.

What happened next

  1. Western Michigan's next game: W 45-40 vs Akron, Nov 9

    6 days later

  2. Central Michigan's next game: W 54-30 vs Kent State, Nov 10

    7 days later

  3. The teams' next meeting after Nov 3, 2021: Western Michigan 12, Central Michigan 10, Nov 16, 2022

    about 12 months later

Related pages

Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.

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