Regular season ·

Stanford beat Oregon

No. 3 Oregon4-124
Stanford3-231Final
Sat, Oct 2 · Stanford Stadium · Crowd 31,610 · 82°, clearABC

Records are after this game. Rankings are the AP poll before it.

Stanford had a 5 percent chance to win with 7:59 left in the 4th quarter, by our win chance curve, and won 31-24 in overtime, October 2, 2021.

How the game turned

Stanford aheadOregon aheadBiggest swingLow: 5%
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Q3 8:32 Stanford 17, Oregon 14

Stanford 48% to win

Verdell 1-yd TD run, cuts it to 17-14

Big moments

  1. 1Q1 10:30 · Stanford 3, Oregon 0Karty 25-yd field goal, Stanford goes ahead 3-0
  2. 2Q3 8:32 · Stanford 17, Oregon 14Stanford's win chance fell from 71% to 48%.Verdell 1-yd TD run, cuts it to 17-14
  3. 3Q4 9:32 · Stanford 17, Oregon 24Stanford's win chance fell from 30% to 11%.Brown 5-yd TD run, Oregon goes ahead 24-17
  4. 4Q4 0:01 · Stanford 24, Oregon 24Stanford's win chance rose from 21% to 41%.McKee 2-yd TD pass to Higgins, ties it 24-24
  5. 5OT1 · Stanford 31, Oregon 24Stanford's win chance rose from 31% to 45%.McKee 14-yd TD pass to Humphreys, Stanford goes ahead 31-24

Stanford's lowest chance to win was 5 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.

The biggest swing

With 8:32 left in the 3rd quarter, Oregon's chance to win went from 29 percent to 52 percent when Oregon scored a touchdown.

The score went from Stanford 17, Oregon 7 to Stanford 17, Oregon 14.

The play: Verdell 1-yd TD run, cuts it to 17-14.

What happened next

  1. Stanford's next game: L 10-28 at Arizona State, Oct 8

    6 days later

  2. Oregon's next game: W 24-17 vs California, Oct 15

    13 days later

  3. The teams' next meeting after Oct 2, 2021: Oregon 45, Stanford 27, Oct 1, 2022

    about 12 months later

Related pages

Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.

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