Regular season ·
California beat Stanford
Records are after this game.
California had a 10 percent chance to win in the 3rd quarter, by our win chance curve, and won 27-20, November 19, 2022.
How the game turned
Q4 9:54 California 20, Stanford 17
California 69% to win
Sirmon fumble return TD, two-point try good, California goes ahead 20-17
Big moments
- 1Q1 12:08 · California 0, Stanford 7California's win chance fell from 50% to 45%.Leigber 1-yd TD run, Stanford goes ahead 7-0
- 2Q4 9:54 · California 20, Stanford 17California's win chance rose from 28% to 69%.Sirmon fumble return TD, two-point try good, California goes ahead 20-17
- 3Q4 0:58 · California 27, Stanford 17California's win chance rose from 84% to 94%.Ott 1-yd TD run, California leads 27-17
California's lowest chance to win was 10 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.
The biggest swing
With 9:54 left in the 4th quarter, California's chance to win went from 29 percent to 69 percent when California scored a touchdown.
The score went from California 12, Stanford 17 to California 20, Stanford 17.
The play: Sirmon fumble return TD, two-point try good, California goes ahead 20-17.
What happened next
California's next game: L 28-35 vs UCLA, Nov 25
6 days laterStanford's next game: L 26-35 vs BYU, Nov 26
7 days laterThe teams' next meeting after Nov 19, 2022: California 27, Stanford 15, Nov 18, 2023
about 12 months later
Related pages
Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.