CFP Semifinal at the VRBO Fiesta Bowl ·
CFP Semifinal at the VRBO Fiesta Bowl
Records are after this game. Rankings are the AP poll before it.
No. 3 TCU beat No. 2 Michigan by 6 points, the CFP Semifinal at the VRBO Fiesta Bowl.
It was played at a neutral site: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ.
How the game turned
Q4 13:07 TCU 48, Michigan 38
TCU 90% to win
Duggan 76-yd TD pass to Johnston, TCU leads 48-38
Big moments
- 1Q1 9:22 · TCU 7, Michigan 0TCU's win chance rose from 34% to 42%.Clark interception return TD, TCU goes ahead 7-0
- 2Q2 4:56 · TCU 21, Michigan 3TCU's win chance rose from 73% to 86%.Duggan 6-yd TD pass to Barber, TCU leads 21-3
- 3Q3 4:25 · TCU 28, Michigan 16TCU's win chance rose from 64% to 87%.Demercado 1-yd TD run, TCU leads 28-16
- 4Q4 13:07 · TCU 48, Michigan 38TCU's win chance rose from 60% to 90%.Duggan 76-yd TD pass to Johnston, TCU leads 48-38
TCU's lowest chance to win was 19 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.
The biggest swing
With 13:07 left in the 4th quarter, TCU's chance to win went from 60 percent to 90 percent when TCU scored a touchdown.
The score went from TCU 41, Michigan 38 to TCU 48, Michigan 38.
The play: Duggan 76-yd TD pass to Johnston, TCU leads 48-38.
What happened next
Michigan finished the 2022 season 13-1, No. 2 in the last AP poll before the bowls.
TCU's next game: L 7-65 vs Georgia in the CFP National Championship, Jan 9
9 days laterMichigan's first game of the 2023 season: W 30-3 vs East Carolina, Sep 2, 2023
about 8 months later
Related pages
Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.