Regular season ·

Wisconsin beat Illinois

Wisconsin5-225
Illinois3-521Final
Sat, Oct 21 · Memorial Stadium, Champaign, Ill. · Crowd 54,205 · 71°, clearFS1

Records are after this game.

Wisconsin had a 8 percent chance to win in the 4th quarter, by our win chance curve, and won 25-21, October 21, 2023.

How the game turned

Wisconsin aheadIllinois aheadBiggest swingLow: 8%
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Q4 0:27 Wisconsin 25, Illinois 21

Wisconsin 83% to win

Locke 3-yd TD pass to Rucci, Wisconsin goes ahead 25-21

Big moments

  1. 1Q1 6:07 · Wisconsin 0, Illinois 7Wisconsin's win chance fell from 55% to 41%.Altmyer 1-yd TD pass to Arkin, Illinois goes ahead 7-0
  2. 2Q2 2:12 · Wisconsin 0, Illinois 14Wisconsin's win chance fell from 31% to 19%.Altmyer 3-yd TD pass to Reiman, Illinois leads 14-0
  3. 3Q4 7:21 · Wisconsin 18, Illinois 21Wisconsin's win chance rose from 14% to 34%.Locke 20-yd TD pass to Pauling, two-point try good, cuts it to 21-18
  4. 4Q4 0:27 · Wisconsin 25, Illinois 21Wisconsin's win chance rose from 52% to 83%.Locke 3-yd TD pass to Rucci, Wisconsin goes ahead 25-21

Wisconsin's lowest chance to win was 8 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.

The biggest swing

With 0:27 left in the 4th quarter, Wisconsin's chance to win went from 52 percent to 83 percent when Wisconsin scored a touchdown.

The score went from Wisconsin 18, Illinois 21 to Wisconsin 25, Illinois 21.

The play: Locke 3-yd TD pass to Rucci, Wisconsin goes ahead 25-21.

What happened next

  1. Wisconsin's next game: L 10-24 vs Ohio State, Oct 28

    7 days later

  2. Illinois's next game: W 27-26 at Minnesota, Nov 4

    14 days later

  3. The teams' next meeting after Oct 21, 2023: Wisconsin 27, Illinois 10, Nov 22, 2025

    about 2 years later

Related pages

Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.

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