Regular season ·

Western Michigan beat Central Michigan

Central Michigan5-528
Western Michigan4-638Final
Tue, Nov 7 · Waldo Stadium, Kalamazoo, Mich. · 44°, cloudyESPNU

Records are after this game.

Western Michigan had a 9 percent chance to win with 0:00 left in the 3rd quarter, by our win chance curve, and won 38-28, November 7, 2023.

How the game turned

Western Michigan aheadCentral Michigan aheadBiggest swing
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Q4 8:53 Western Michigan 28, Central Michigan 28

Western Michigan 54% to win

Buckley 52-yd TD run, ties it 28-28

Big moments

  1. 1Q1 9:13 · Western Michigan 7, Central Michigan 0Western Michigan's win chance rose from 64% to 76%.Wolff 23-yd TD pass to Hence, Western Michigan goes ahead 7-0
  2. 2Q3 3:38 · Western Michigan 21, Central Michigan 21Western Michigan's win chance fell from 75% to 56%.Bauer 3-yd TD pass to Collier, ties it 21-21
  3. 3Q3 2:04 · Western Michigan 21, Central Michigan 28Western Michigan's win chance fell from 36% to 22%.Bauer 67-yd TD pass to Davis, Central Michigan goes ahead 28-21
  4. 4Q4 8:53 · Western Michigan 28, Central Michigan 28Western Michigan's win chance rose from 19% to 54%.Buckley 52-yd TD run, ties it 28-28
  5. 5Q4 7:51 · Western Michigan 35, Central Michigan 28Western Michigan's win chance rose from 64% to 86%.Wolff 41-yd TD pass to Thomas, Western Michigan goes ahead 35-28

Western Michigan's lowest chance to win was 9 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.

The biggest swing

With 8:53 left in the 4th quarter, Western Michigan's chance to win went from 19 percent to 54 percent when Western Michigan scored a touchdown.

The score went from Western Michigan 21, Central Michigan 28 to Western Michigan 28, Central Michigan 28.

The play: Buckley 52-yd TD run, ties it 28-28.

What happened next

  1. Western Michigan's next game: L 0-24 at Northern Illinois, Nov 14

    7 days later

  2. Central Michigan's next game: L 20-34 at Ohio, Nov 15

    8 days later

  3. The teams' next meeting after Nov 7, 2023: Central Michigan 16, Western Michigan 14, Nov 19, 2024

    about 12 months later

Related pages

Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.

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