CFP Semifinal at the Rose Bowl Game ·

CFP Semifinal at the Rose Bowl Game

CFP Semifinal at the Rose Bowl Game Pres. by Prudential
No. 5 Alabama12-220
No. 1 Michigan14-027Final
Mon, Jan 1 · Rose Bowl, Pasadena, Calif. (neutral site) · Crowd 96,371 · 64°, fairESPN

Records are after this game. Rankings are the AP poll before it.

Michigan had a 8 percent chance to win in the 4th quarter, by our win chance curve, and won 27-20 in overtime, the CFP Semifinal at the Rose Bowl Game, January 1, 2024.

Michigan was No. 1 and Alabama No. 5 in the last AP poll before the bowls.

How the game turned

Michigan aheadAlabama aheadBiggest swing
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Q4 1:34 Michigan 20, Alabama 20

Michigan 53% to win

McCarthy 4-yd TD pass to Wilson

Big moments

  1. 1Q1 9:41 · Michigan 0, Alabama 7Michigan's win chance fell from 51% to 38%.McClellan 34-yd TD run, Alabama goes ahead 7-0
  2. 2Q2 3:49 · Michigan 13, Alabama 7Michigan's win chance rose from 61% to 71%.McCarthy 38-yd TD pass to Morris
  3. 3Q4 14:30 · Michigan 13, Alabama 17Michigan's win chance fell from 56% to 32%.McClellan 3-yd TD run, Alabama goes ahead 17-13
  4. 4Q4 4:41 · Michigan 13, Alabama 20Michigan's win chance fell from 34% to 14%.Reichard 52-yd field goal, Alabama leads 20-13
  5. 5OT1 · Michigan 27, Alabama 20Michigan's win chance rose from 51% to 61%.Corum 17-yd TD run, Michigan goes ahead 27-20

Michigan's lowest chance to win was 8 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.

The biggest swing

With 1:34 left in the 4th quarter, Michigan's chance to win went from 17 percent to 53 percent when Michigan scored a touchdown.

The score went from Michigan 13, Alabama 20 to Michigan 20, Alabama 20.

What happened next

  1. Alabama finished the 2023 season 12-2, No. 5 in the last AP poll before the bowls.

  2. Michigan's next game: W 34-13 vs Washington in the CFP National Championship, Jan 8

    7 days later

  3. Alabama's first game of the 2024 season: W 63-0 vs Western Kentucky, Aug 31, 2024

    about 8 months later

  4. The teams' next meeting after Jan 1, 2024: Michigan 19, Alabama 13, Dec 31, 2024

    about 12 months later

Related pages

Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.

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