CFP Semifinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl ·

CFP Semifinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl

CFP Semifinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
No. 3 Texas12-231
No. 2 Washington14-037Final
Mon, Jan 1 · Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, La. (neutral site) · Crowd 68,791 · IndoorsESPN

Records are after this game. Rankings are the AP poll before it.

No. 2 Washington beat No. 3 Texas by 6 points, the CFP Semifinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl.

It was played at a neutral site: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA.

How the game turned

Washington aheadTexas aheadBiggest swingLow: 32%

Q4 7:23 Washington 34, Texas 28

Washington 74% to win

Ewers 1-yd TD pass to Mitchell, cuts it to 34-28

Big moments

  1. 1Q1 11:04 · Washington 7, Texas 0Washington's win chance rose from 41% to 56%.Johnson 2-yd TD run, Washington goes ahead 7-0
  2. 2Q2 13:08 · Washington 14, Texas 7Washington's win chance rose from 40% to 55%.Johnson 1-yd TD run, Washington goes ahead 14-7
  3. 3Q2 1:27 · Washington 21, Texas 14Washington's win chance rose from 54% to 57%.Penix 29-yd TD pass to Polk, Washington goes ahead 21-14
  4. 4Q3 10:30 · Washington 28, Texas 21Washington's win chance rose from 55% to 63%.Penix 19-yd TD pass to McMillan, Washington goes ahead 28-21
  5. 5Q4 7:23 · Washington 34, Texas 28Washington's win chance fell from 92% to 74%.Ewers 1-yd TD pass to Mitchell, cuts it to 34-28

Washington's lowest chance to win was 32 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.

The biggest swing

With 7:23 left in the 4th quarter, Texas's chance to win went from 8 percent to 26 percent when Texas scored a touchdown.

The score went from Washington 34, Texas 21 to Washington 34, Texas 28.

The play: Ewers 1-yd TD pass to Mitchell, cuts it to 34-28.

What happened next

  1. Texas finished the 2023 season 12-2, No. 3 in the last AP poll before the bowls.

  2. Washington's next game: L 13-34 vs Michigan in the CFP National Championship, Jan 8

    7 days later
  3. Texas's first game of the 2024 season: W 52-0 vs Colorado State, Aug 31, 2024

    about 8 months later

Related pages

Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.

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