Regular season ·
Illinois beat USC
Records are after this game. Rankings are the AP poll before it.
No. 23 Illinois beat No. 21 USC by 2 points.
How the game turned
Q4 0:00 Illinois 34, USC 32
Illinois 100% to win
Olano 41-yd field goal, Illinois wins it 34-32
Big moments
- 1Q1 5:49 · Illinois 7, USC 0Illinois's win chance rose from 48% to 63%.Altmyer 12-yd TD run, Illinois goes ahead 7-0
- 2Q2 10:49 · Illinois 14, USC 7Illinois's win chance rose from 46% to 66%.Beatty 3-yd TD pass to Altmyer, Illinois goes ahead 14-7
- 3Q4 9:54 · Illinois 31, USC 25Illinois's win chance fell from 92% to 72%.Maiava 19-yd TD pass to Lemon, two-point try good, cuts it to 31-25
- 4Q4 1:55 · Illinois 31, USC 32Illinois's win chance fell from 52% to 38%.Maiava 16-yd TD pass to Lemon, USC goes ahead 32-31
- 5Q4 0:00 · Illinois 34, USC 32Illinois's win chance rose from 49% to 100%.Olano 41-yd field goal, Illinois wins it 34-32
Illinois's lowest chance to win was 30 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.
The biggest swing
With 0:00 left in the 4th quarter, Illinois's chance to win went from 49 percent to 99 percent when Illinois kicked a field goal.
The score went from Illinois 31, USC 32 to Illinois 34, USC 32.
The play: Olano 41-yd field goal, Illinois wins it 34-32.
What happened next
Illinois's next game: W 43-27 at Purdue, Oct 4
7 days laterUSC's next game: W 31-13 vs Michigan, Oct 11
14 days later
Related pages
Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.