Regular season ·
Coastal Carolina beat South Alabama
Records are after this game.
Coastal Carolina had a 7 percent chance to win with 14:54 left in the 3rd quarter, by our win chance curve, and won 38-20, September 20, 2025.
How the game turned
Q4 10:00 Coastal Carolina 28, South Alabama 17
Coastal Carolina 79% to win
Simpkins 24-yd TD run, Coastal Carolina leads 28-17
Big moments
- 1Q2 7:12 · Coastal Carolina 0, South Alabama 7Coastal Carolina's win chance fell from 15% to 9%.Eager 0-yd TD run, South Alabama goes ahead 7-0
- 2Q2 1:24 · Coastal Carolina 7, South Alabama 14Coastal Carolina's win chance fell from 18% to 9%.Bullock 2-yd TD run, South Alabama goes ahead 14-7
- 3Q3 11:19 · Coastal Carolina 21, South Alabama 14Coastal Carolina's win chance rose from 26% to 43%.Hudson 7-yd TD run, Coastal Carolina goes ahead 21-14
- 4Q4 10:00 · Coastal Carolina 28, South Alabama 17Coastal Carolina's win chance rose from 47% to 79%.Simpkins 24-yd TD run, Coastal Carolina leads 28-17
- 5Q4 2:32 · Coastal Carolina 38, South Alabama 20Coastal Carolina's win chance rose from 78% to 91%.Brown fumble return TD, Coastal Carolina leads 38-20
Coastal Carolina's lowest chance to win was 7 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.
The biggest swing
With 10:00 left in the 4th quarter, Coastal Carolina's chance to win went from 47 percent to 79 percent when Coastal Carolina scored a touchdown.
The score went from Coastal Carolina 21, South Alabama 17 to Coastal Carolina 28, South Alabama 17.
The play: Simpkins 24-yd TD run, Coastal Carolina leads 28-17.
What happened next
South Alabama's next game: L 22-36 at North Texas, Sep 27
7 days laterCoastal Carolina's next game: L 7-47 at Old Dominion, Oct 4
14 days later
Related pages
Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.