Valero Alamo Bowl ·
Valero Alamo Bowl
Records are after this game. Rankings are the AP poll before it.
TCU had a 5 percent chance to win with 8:07 left in the 4th quarter, by our win chance curve, and won 30-27 in overtime, the Valero Alamo Bowl, December 30, 2025.
How the game turned
OT1 TCU 30, USC 27
TCU 100% to win
Seals 35-yd TD pass to Payne
Big moments
- 1Q1 7:06 · TCU 0, USC 3TCU's win chance fell from 37% to 36%.Sayeri 40-yd field goal, USC goes ahead 3-0
- 2Q2 13:36 · TCU 7, USC 3TCU's win chance rose from 44% to 56%.Denman 5-yd TD run, TCU goes ahead 7-3
- 3Q2 9:57 · TCU 7, USC 10TCU's win chance fell from 48% to 35%.Miller 2-yd TD run, USC goes ahead 10-7
- 4Q2 4:58 · TCU 14, USC 10TCU's win chance rose from 39% to 57%.Seals 1-yd TD run, TCU goes ahead 14-10
- 5Q3 0:49 · TCU 14, USC 21TCU's win chance fell from 44% to 23%.Maiava 21-yd TD pass to Richardson, USC goes ahead 21-14
- 6Q4 0:02 · TCU 24, USC 24TCU's win chance rose from 30% to 33%.Lemmermann 27-yd field goal, ties it 24-24
- 7OT1 · TCU 24, USC 27Sayeri 22-yd field goal, USC goes ahead 27-24
- 8OT1 · TCU 30, USC 27TCU's win chance rose from 47% to 100%.Seals 35-yd TD pass to Payne
TCU's lowest chance to win was 5 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.
The biggest swing
In overtime, TCU's chance to win went from 47 percent to 99 percent when TCU scored a touchdown.
The score went from TCU 24, USC 27 to TCU 30, USC 27.
The play: Seals 35-yd TD pass to Payne.
What happened next
TCU finished the 2025 season 9-4.
USC finished the 2025 season 9-4, No. 16 in the last AP poll before the bowls.
TCU's first game of the 2026 season: L 10-15 vs North Carolina, Aug 29, 2026
about 8 months laterUSC's first game of the 2026 season: W 42-26 vs San José State, Aug 29, 2026
about 8 months later
Related pages
Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.