This week · as of Wed Nov 4

7-1, won 5 straight, on track for 10-2 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerFBS medianUTSATexas StateTexas StateNational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelUTSA when he took over: 13.1 (Regional Program IV), its final 2019 readingtook overUTSA, 2020: 7-5, Regional Program IVUTSA, 2020: 7-5, Regional Program IV20207-5UTSA, 2021: 12-2, Regional Program II202112-2UTSA, 2022: 11-3, Regional Program I202211-3UTSA, 2023: 9-4, National Program III20239-4UTSA, 2024: 7-6, National Program III20247-6UTSA, 2025: 7-6, National Program II20257-6UTSA, 2026: 7-1, National Program IIUTSA, 2026: 7-1, National Program II20267-1+17.8best: 2026gray dashed: rival programs · ○ the program when he took over · Dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Bowls and playoffs: 3-3

2020First Responder BowlL 24-312021Frisco BowlL 24-382022Cure BowlL 12-182023Frisco BowlW 35-172024Myrtle Beach BowlW 44-152025First Responder BowlW 57-20

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameW 42-19 at Tulane Sat Oct 24
  • This season7-1 won 5 straight
  • On track for10-2 regular season
  • Nextat Florida Atlantic Thu Nov 5
  • Stature53rd of 138 FBS programs

What the result changed

  • Playoff odds 10% → 16% CFB Zeitgeist forecast, before and after

Thursday: at Florida Atlantic

Thu Nov 5, 7:30 pm ET ESPN · Florida Atlantic is 5-3 · First meeting between Traylor and Zach Kittley as head coaches · UTSA’s chance to win: 83% (the site’s model)

One headline named him in the last 7 days

85th of 138 FBS head coaches

The headlines, Oct 25–Nov 4 from several outlets

What they are talking about, week and season

Offense: 29th of 138 per play. Defense: 107th.

Offense, per play29thRunning offense24thDefense, per play107thPass defense121stWorstBest
Offense, per play29th of 138Running offense24th of 138Defense, per play107th of 138Pass defense121st of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is UTSA. The other two rows are where UTSA stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Thu Nov 5at Florida Atlantic (5-3)ESPN83%
  2. Sat Nov 14vs. North Texas (6-2)ESPNU65%
  3. Sat Nov 21at UAB (4-4)74%
  4. Sat Nov 28vs. Tulsa (4-4)80%

Percent: UTSA’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where UTSA stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

45th52nd60thPreseason57thUT Rio Grande Valley W 45-16UT Rio Grande Valley W 45-16W 45-16UT Rio Grande…56thTexas State W 31-26Texas State W 31-26W 31-26Texas State53rdTexas L 6-30Texas L 6-30L 6-30Texas49thColorado State W 59-45Colorado State W 59-45W 59-45Colorado State48thRice W 16-14Rice W 16-14W 16-14Rice48thSouth Florida W 31-24South Florida W 31-24W 31-24South Florida49thNavy W 38-34Navy W 38-34W 38-34Navy53rdTulane W 42-19Tulane W 42-19W 42-19Tulane52nd
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1No game9 headlines · 45th of 138UTSA's Jeff Traylor addresses speculation linking him to Baylor head coach opening On3
  2. Oct 19–25W 42-19 at Tulane0 headlines
  3. Oct 12–18W 38-34 vs. Navy1 headline · 82nd of 138
  4. Oct 5–11W 31-24 vs. South Florida0 headlines
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4W 16-14 at Rice0 headlines
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltW 59-45 vs. Colorado State0 headlines

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from UTSA’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Report card

Offense carries it: 63rd percentile offense, below the median defense at 32nd.

UTSA, every completed season graded against the whole field, then averaged.

Offense

B
of which —63rd
efficiency — 63rd percentile success rate, 2020–25
B-57th
Standard-downs success
B67th
Passing-downs success
B65th
Trench push (line yards)
B63rd
Red-zone scoring rate
B-50th
Power-success (short yardage)
B-58th
Ball security (giveaways per game)

Defense

C-
of which —32nd
32nd percentile SP+ defense, 2020–25
A+90th
Front-7 havoc
B+78th
Secondary havoc
B65th
Stuff rate (run defense)
B62nd
Takeaways per game

Each season is his team’s percentile among every team with that stat (the share it beat), averaged over his completed seasons here; a mid-season takeover year and the season in progress aren’t graded. Letters: A+ 90th percentile and up, A 80, B+ 70, B 60, B− 50, C+ 45, C 40, C− 30, D 15, F below.

Poach watch

This winter

6%chance he leaves this winter for a head-coaching job elsewhere, or an NFL coordinator jobSettled39th-highest of 132 FBS head coaches
0%50%+

Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.

What drives his number

The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.

  • ▲ Higher
    His team is 7-1, outscoring opponents by 7.5 points a game
  • ▼ Lower
    Age 58 · in the state he was born in
  • ▲ Higher
    His 7th season at UTSA
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do

Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.

  • The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
  • Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
  • It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
  • A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.