The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Mark Helfrich

Followed Chip Kelly. Mark Helfrich inherited a Power Program I Oregon and won with it.

37–16

2013–2016 · 1 stint

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached Power Program in his 1st career season — faster than 57% of the 395 FBS coaches who have ever reached Power Program (rank #1 of 395 by seasons-to-arrival).

Oregon, 4 seasons

+0.5

Power Program I → Power Program I.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)

How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints

Oregon7.0pt#196 of 258 · less than most

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

5–2 against his rivals. Just 1–2 against Rich Rodriguez.

Rivalry record

5–2

71.4% · 2 rivals

One-score games

6–8

42.9% · margin ≤8

vs. Blue Blood or better

3–1

75.0%

Rivalry ledger

Oregon State3–175%

Washington2–167%

The toughest matchup

vs. Rich Rodriguez1–2

3 meetings, 2013–2014

’13 L’14 L · blew a 4-pt lead’14 W · wire to wire

33% win rate across a real, 3-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.

Performance by opponent class

Blue Blood

3–1 75.0%

Power Program

9–8 52.9%

National Program

12–4 75.0%

Regional Program

8–3 72.7%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact

+0.35

#46 of 319 · more than most

Defense marginal impact

-0.46

#318 of 325 · less than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2013–2016

Oregoninheritor

Power Program I → Power Program I

Mark Helfrich inherited a Power Program I Oregon and won with it.

1st-best Oregon tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Outperforms his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent

+21.6 pts

#35 of 208 · more than most

Defense vs. talent

-49.6 pts

#209 of 208 · less than most

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Chip Kelly (2009–2012) · succeeded by Willie Taggart (2017–2017).

Season	2013	2014	2015	2016
Record & result
Record	11–2	13–2	9–4	4–8
Postseason	—	Title game L	L bowl	—
Recruiting rank	—	#21	#16	#27
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	42.4	37.8	44.7
Coordinators
OC	—	Scott Frost	Scott Frost	Matt Lubick
DC	—	Don Pellum	Don Pellum	Brady Hoke
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	100	90	75
Defense	—	70	20	2
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%	—	44.2	37.6	33.9
Red-zone pass%	—	39.9	35.8	45.4
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	48.9	45.1	47.5

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

OC: Scott Frost → Matt Lubick · 2016

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 37.6% → 33.9% (-3.7 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 61% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

DC: Don Pellum → Brady Hoke · 2016

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Grows Edge from high school

100%

#191 of 208 stints

Postseason detail2014: Beat Florida State 59–20 Rose Bowl Game Pres. By Northwestern Mutual - Semifinal2014: Lost to Ohio State 20–42 Cfp National Championship Game Pres. By At&T2015: Lost to TCU 41–47 Valero Alamo Bowl

16 NFL Draft picks: Dion Jordan (2013), Kyle Long (2013), Kiko Alonso (2013), Kenjon Barner (2013), John Boyett (2013), Josh Huff (2014), De'Anthony Thomas (2014), Taylor Hart (2014) + 8 more

37–16

Defining games during this era

2014 NCG · Ohio State 42, Oregon 20 2014 Pac-12 Championship · Oregon 51, Arizona 13