The Zeitgeist List · coordinating

Tim Lester

Offensive coordinator across 2 programs, 2 stints, before and after wearing the head-coach hat — every season measured on the same axis, whether he personally ran the unit or someone else did.

How to read this. Coordinator seasons come from coordinator_journeys(); head-coaching-era seasons are the same unit's FBS-relative percentile for those years, regardless of who coached it, read directly from staff_assignments. A role change (a “hinge”) is a fact, never a performance verdict — only the season-by-season data itself is colored by outcome.

The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Tim Lester

Followed P.J. Fleck. Tim Lester held Western Michigan at National Program III for 6 seasons.

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2017–2022 · 1 stint

Western Michigan

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Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached National Program in his 1st career season — faster than 41% of the 675 FBS coaches who have ever reached National Program (rank #1 of 675 by seasons-to-arrival).

Western Michigan, 6 seasons

−5.5

National Program III → Regional Program II.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)

How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints

Western Michigan10.7pt#116 of 258 · a typical amount

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

6–6 against his rivals. Just 2–4 against Chris Creighton.

Rivalry record

6–6

50.0% · 2 rivals

One-score games

16–12

57.1% · margin ≤8

Rivalry ledger

Eastern Michigan2–433%

Central Michigan4–267%

The toughest matchup

vs. Chris Creighton2–4

6 meetings, 2017–2022

’17 W’18 W · erased a 3-pt deficit’19 L · blew a 11-pt lead’20 L · blew a 7-pt lead’21 L · blew a 12-pt lead’22 L

33% win rate across a real, 6-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.

Performance by opponent class

Power Program

1–7 12.5%

National Program

1–5 16.7%

Regional Program

27–20 57.4%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact

+0.22

#79 of 319 · more than most

Defense marginal impact

-0.02

#172 of 325 · a typical amount

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2017–2022

Western Michigancaretaker

National Program III → National Program III

Tim Lester held Western Michigan at National Program III for 6 seasons.

3rd-best Western Michigan tenure of 10 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent

+11.6 pts

#59 of 208 · a typical amount

Defense vs. talent

-0.7 pts

#105 of 208 · a typical amount

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed P.J. Fleck (2013–2016) · succeeded by Lance Taylor (2023–2026).

Season	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
Record & result
Record	6–6	7–6	7–6	4–2	8–5	5–7
Postseason	—	L bowl	L bowl	—	W bowl	—
Recruiting rank	#89	#76	#92	#86	#96	#103
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	34.3	41.1	45.1	39.6	38.4	41.9
Coordinators
OC	Kevin Johns / Jake Moreland	Jake Moreland	Jake Moreland	Jake Moreland	Mike Bath / Eric Evans	Jeff Thorne
DC	Tim Daoust / Lou Esposito	Tim Daoust / Lou Esposito	Lou Esposito	Lou Esposito	Lou Esposito	Lou Esposito
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	35	44	67	94	85	6
Defense	50	6	68	22	30	84
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%	33.4	36.5	44.0	34.3	38.3	40.5
Red-zone pass%	25.0	34.0	31.2	35.6	27.7	35.4
4th-down go%opp. territory	27.9	52.3	51.2	29.4	48.8	44.2

Roster construction · portal era

Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.

Portal arrivals

2.8★ avg rating

Portal departures

left via the portal

Net portal flow

-9

#178 of 187 FBS stints

Who they bring in

Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)

6′0″, 201 lbs

across 3 of 6 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix

Size vs. position-typical

+4.1 lbs

#119 of 255 · a typical amount

Avg. class year

#12 of 255 · more than most

Top states: PA (1), RI (1), MI (1)

Who won the portal our read

Talent added

24.4

position-weighted

Talent lost

37.6

position-weighted

Net

-13.2

arrivals minus departures

Best addition: Anthony Romphf (CB) from Purdue

Biggest loss: Ginial Isma (CB) to the portal

Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

OC: Kevin Johns / co-Jake Moreland → Jake Moreland · 2018

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 33.4% → 36.5% (+3.1 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 80% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

OC: Jake Moreland → co-Mike Bath / co-Eric Evans · 2021

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 34.3% → 38.3% (+4.0 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 82% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

OC: co-Mike Bath / co-Eric Evans → Jeff Thorne · 2022

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 38.3% → 40.5% (+2.2 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 32% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

DC: Tim Daoust / co-Lou Esposito → Lou Esposito · 2019the system held

2-season window either side.

Roster size, by position

Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)

Quarterback

205 lbs

6′2″ avg · #603 of 767 · less than most

Running back

207 lbs

5′10″ avg · #381 of 791 · a typical amount

Wide receiver

187 lbs

5′11″ avg · #635 of 791 · less than most

Tight end

240 lbs

6′4″ avg · #552 of 731 · less than most

Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters

Interior line

302 lbs

6′4″ avg · #656 of 779 · less than most

D-line

282 lbs

6′3″ avg · #437 of 753 · a typical amount

Linebacker

227 lbs

6′1″ avg · #449 of 772 · a typical amount

Cornerback

182 lbs

5′11″ avg · #708 of 771 · less than most

Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Quarterback from high school

75%

#164 of 206 stints

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Postseason detail2018: Lost to BYU 18–49 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl2019: Lost to Western Kentucky 20–23 Servpro First Responder Bowl2021: Beat Nevada 52–24 Quick Lane Bowl

9 NFL Draft picks: Corey Davis (2017), Taylor Moton (2017), Keion Adams (2017), Chukwuma Okorafor (2018), Darius Phillips (2018), D'Wayne Eskridge (2021), Jaylon Moore (2021), Skyy Moore (2022) + 1 more

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