Regular season ·

Mississippi State beat Auburn

No. 8 Auburn4-29
Mississippi State4-223Final
Sat, Oct 6 · Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, Miss. · Crowd 60,635 · 86°ESPN2

Records are after this game. Rankings are the AP poll before it.

Mississippi State beat No. 8 Auburn by 14 points.

Auburn was No. 8 in the AP poll before the game; Mississippi State was not ranked.

How the game turned

Mississippi State aheadAuburn aheadBiggest swingLow: 31%
123

Q2 0:00 Mississippi State 13, Auburn 3

Mississippi State 82% to win

Fitzgerald 1-yd TD run, Mississippi State leads 13-3

Big moments

  1. 1Q1 7:30 · Mississippi State 0, Auburn 3Carlson 47-yd field goal, Auburn goes ahead 3-0
  2. 2Q2 10:13 · Mississippi State 6, Auburn 3Mississippi State's win chance rose from 42% to 47%.Christmann 47-yd field goal, Mississippi State goes ahead 6-3
  3. 3Q2 0:00 · Mississippi State 13, Auburn 3Mississippi State's win chance rose from 61% to 82%.Fitzgerald 1-yd TD run, Mississippi State leads 13-3

Mississippi State's lowest chance to win was 31 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.

The biggest swing

With 0:00 left in the 2nd quarter, Mississippi State's chance to win went from 61 percent to 82 percent when Mississippi State scored a touchdown.

The score went from Mississippi State 6, Auburn 3 to Mississippi State 13, Auburn 3.

The play: Fitzgerald 1-yd TD run, Mississippi State leads 13-3.

What happened next

  1. Auburn went from No. 8 to No. 21 in the next AP poll.

  2. Auburn's next game: L 24-30 vs Tennessee, Oct 13

    7 days later

  3. Mississippi State's next game: L 3-19 at LSU, Oct 20

    14 days later

  4. The teams' next meeting after Oct 6, 2018: Auburn 56, Mississippi State 23, Sep 28, 2019

    about 12 months later

Related pages

Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.

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