Regular season ·
UCLA beat USC
Records are after this game.
UCLA had a 8 percent chance to win in the 4th quarter, by our win chance curve, and won 34-27, November 17, 2018.
How the game turned
Q4 10:39 UCLA 28, USC 27
UCLA 50% to win
Kelley 55-yd TD run, UCLA goes ahead 28-27
Big moments
- 1Q1 11:32 · UCLA 0, USC 3UCLA's win chance fell from 36% to 34%.Brown 46-yd field goal, USC goes ahead 3-0
- 2Q1 7:53 · UCLA 7, USC 3UCLA's win chance rose from 37% to 50%.Speight 33-yd TD pass to Howard, UCLA goes ahead 7-3
- 3Q2 8:10 · UCLA 21, USC 17UCLA's win chance rose from 38% to 47%.Kelley 1-yd TD run, UCLA goes ahead 21-17
- 4Q2 5:54 · UCLA 21, USC 24UCLA's win chance fell from 48% to 36%.Daniels 45-yd TD pass to Jones, USC goes ahead 24-21
- 5Q4 10:39 · UCLA 28, USC 27UCLA's win chance rose from 20% to 50%.Kelley 55-yd TD run, UCLA goes ahead 28-27
UCLA's lowest chance to win was 8 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.
The biggest swing
With 10:39 left in the 4th quarter, UCLA's chance to win went from 19 percent to 50 percent when UCLA scored a touchdown.
The score went from UCLA 21, USC 27 to UCLA 28, USC 27.
The play: Kelley 55-yd TD run, UCLA goes ahead 28-27.
It was UCLA's first win over USC since the 2014 season, after 3 straight losses in the series, counted since 1970 in our games data.
What happened next
UCLA's next game: L 42-49 vs Stanford, Nov 24
7 days laterUSC's next game: L 17-24 vs Notre Dame, Nov 24
7 days laterThe teams' next meeting after Nov 17, 2018: USC 52, UCLA 35, Nov 23, 2019
about 12 months later
Related pages
Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.