Regular season ·

East Carolina beat North Carolina

North Carolina0-219
East Carolina1-141Final
Sat, Sep 8 · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium, Greenville, N.C. · Crowd 39,298 · 91°ESPNU

Records are after this game.

East Carolina beat North Carolina by 22 points.

How the game turned

East Carolina aheadNorth Carolina aheadBiggest swingLow: 5%
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Q3 10:19 East Carolina 28, North Carolina 19

East Carolina 53% to win

Pinnix 48-yd TD run, East Carolina leads 28-19

Big moments

  1. 1Q1 13:04 · East Carolina 0, North Carolina 3East Carolina's win chance fell from 16% to 12%.Jones 32-yd field goal, North Carolina goes ahead 3-0
  2. 2Q1 9:21 · East Carolina 7, North Carolina 3East Carolina's win chance rose from 17% to 23%.Scott 6-yd TD run, East Carolina goes ahead 7-3
  3. 3Q2 13:18 · East Carolina 7, North Carolina 13East Carolina's win chance fell from 15% to 6%.Brown 12-yd TD run, North Carolina goes ahead 13-7
  4. 4Q2 6:08 · East Carolina 14, North Carolina 13East Carolina's win chance rose from 9% to 16%.Ahlers 1-yd TD run, East Carolina goes ahead 14-13
  5. 5Q2 2:59 · East Carolina 14, North Carolina 16Jones 49-yd field goal, North Carolina goes ahead 16-14
  6. 6Q2 1:15 · East Carolina 21, North Carolina 16East Carolina's win chance rose from 19% to 32%.Herring 22-yd TD pass to Brown, East Carolina goes ahead 21-16
  7. 7Q3 10:19 · East Carolina 28, North Carolina 19East Carolina's win chance rose from 33% to 53%.Pinnix 48-yd TD run, East Carolina leads 28-19

East Carolina's lowest chance to win was 5 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.

The biggest swing

With 10:19 left in the 3rd quarter, East Carolina's chance to win went from 33 percent to 53 percent when East Carolina scored a touchdown.

The score went from East Carolina 21, North Carolina 19 to East Carolina 28, North Carolina 19.

The play: Pinnix 48-yd TD run, East Carolina leads 28-19.

What happened next

  1. East Carolina's next game: L 13-20 at South Florida, Sep 22

    14 days later

  2. North Carolina's next game: W 38-35 vs Pittsburgh, Sep 22

    14 days later

Related pages

Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.

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