Regular season ·

South Florida beat Tulsa

No. 23 South Florida6-025
Tulsa1-524Final
Fri, Oct 12 · Chapman Stadium, Tulsa, Okla. · Crowd 16,142 · 60°ESPN

Records are after this game. Rankings are the AP poll before it.

South Florida had a 5 percent chance to win with 11:09 left in the 4th quarter, by our win chance curve, and won 25-24, October 12, 2018.

How the game turned

South Florida aheadTulsa aheadBiggest swingLow: 5%
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Q4 0:02 South Florida 25, Tulsa 24

South Florida 100% to win

Weiss 22-yd field goal, South Florida wins it 25-24

Big moments

  1. 1Q1 5:09 · South Florida 0, Tulsa 7South Florida's win chance fell from 67% to 55%.Boomer 14-yd TD pass to Anderson, Tulsa goes ahead 7-0
  2. 2Q3 13:46 · South Florida 10, Tulsa 10South Florida's win chance rose from 44% to 69%.Cronkrite 66-yd TD run, ties it 10-10
  3. 3Q3 6:04 · South Florida 10, Tulsa 17South Florida's win chance fell from 54% to 40%.Brooks 10-yd TD run, Tulsa goes ahead 17-10
  4. 4Q3 1:00 · South Florida 10, Tulsa 24South Florida's win chance fell from 29% to 10%.Brooks 10-yd TD run, Tulsa leads 24-10
  5. 5Q4 0:02 · South Florida 25, Tulsa 24South Florida's win chance rose from 62% to 100%.Weiss 22-yd field goal, South Florida wins it 25-24

South Florida's lowest chance to win was 5 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.

The biggest swing

With 0:02 left in the 4th quarter, South Florida's chance to win went from 62 percent to 99 percent when South Florida kicked a field goal.

The score went from South Florida 22, Tulsa 24 to South Florida 25, Tulsa 24.

The play: Weiss 22-yd field goal, South Florida wins it 25-24.

What happened next

  1. South Florida's next game: W 38-30 vs UConn, Oct 20

    8 days later

  2. Tulsa's next game: L 0-23 at Arkansas, Oct 20

    8 days later

  3. The teams' next meeting after Oct 12, 2018: Tulsa 42, South Florida 13, Oct 23, 2020

    about 2 years later

Related pages

Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.

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