Regular season ·

Auburn beat Oregon

No. 11 Oregon0-121
No. 16 Auburn1-027Final
Sat, Aug 31 · AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas (neutral site) · Crowd 60,662 · IndoorsABC

Records are after this game. Rankings are the AP poll before it.

Auburn had a 4 percent chance to win with 7:08 left in the 3rd quarter, by our win chance curve, and won 27-21, August 31, 2019.

Auburn was No. 16 and Oregon No. 11 in the AP poll before the game.

How the game turned

Auburn aheadOregon aheadBiggest swingLow: 4%
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Q4 0:09 Auburn 27, Oregon 21

Auburn 99% to win

Nix 26-yd TD pass to Williams, Auburn goes ahead 27-21

Big moments

  1. 1Q1 10:13 · Auburn 0, Oregon 7Auburn's win chance fell from 48% to 34%.Verdell 1-yd TD run, Oregon goes ahead 7-0
  2. 2Q3 9:23 · Auburn 6, Oregon 21Auburn's win chance fell from 20% to 9%.Felix 6-yd TD run, Oregon leads 21-6
  3. 3Q3 4:20 · Auburn 13, Oregon 21Auburn's win chance rose from 10% to 22%.Nix 11-yd TD pass to Stove, cuts it to 21-13
  4. 4Q4 9:48 · Auburn 20, Oregon 21Auburn's win chance rose from 15% to 40%.Gatewood 1-yd TD run, cuts it to 21-20
  5. 5Q4 0:09 · Auburn 27, Oregon 21Auburn's win chance rose from 45% to 99%.Nix 26-yd TD pass to Williams, Auburn goes ahead 27-21

Auburn's lowest chance to win was 4 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.

The biggest swing

With 0:09 left in the 4th quarter, Auburn's chance to win went from 45 percent to 99 percent when Auburn scored a touchdown.

The score went from Auburn 20, Oregon 21 to Auburn 27, Oregon 21.

The play: Nix 26-yd TD pass to Williams, Auburn goes ahead 27-21.

What happened next

  1. Auburn's next game: W 24-6 vs Tulane, Sep 7

    7 days later

  2. Oregon's next game: W 77-6 vs Nevada, Sep 7

    7 days later

Related pages

Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.

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