Regular season ·

Washington State beat Oregon State

Oregon State5-653
Washington State6-554Final
Sat, Nov 23 · Martin Stadium, Pullman, Wash. · Crowd 22,016 · 36°PAC12

Records are after this game.

Washington State had a 6 percent chance to win with 4:17 left in the 4th quarter, by our win chance curve, and won 54-53, November 23, 2019.

How the game turned

Washington State aheadOregon State aheadBiggest swing
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Q4 0:01 Washington State 54, Oregon State 53

Washington State 100% to win

Borghi 2-yd TD run, Washington State wins it 54-53

Big moments

  1. 1Q1 9:16 · Washington State 0, Oregon State 7Washington State's win chance fell from 69% to 59%.Jefferson 54-yd TD run, Oregon State goes ahead 7-0
  2. 2Q2 12:38 · Washington State 7, Oregon State 14Washington State's win chance fell from 66% to 59%.Luton 46-yd TD pass to Flemings, Oregon State goes ahead 14-7
  3. 3Q2 4:51 · Washington State 21, Oregon State 14Washington State's win chance rose from 65% to 82%.Gordon 33-yd TD pass to McIntosh, Washington State goes ahead 21-14
  4. 4Q2 0:26 · Washington State 21, Oregon State 24Hayes 47-yd field goal, Oregon State goes ahead 24-21
  5. 5Q3 8:06 · Washington State 28, Oregon State 24Washington State's win chance rose from 65% to 74%.Gordon 36-yd TD pass to Jackson, Washington State goes ahead 28-24
  6. 6Q4 6:45 · Washington State 42, Oregon State 46Washington State's win chance fell from 70% to 31%.Luton 39-yd TD pass to Jefferson, Oregon State goes ahead 46-42
  7. 7Q4 0:01 · Washington State 54, Oregon State 53Washington State's win chance rose from 24% to 100%.Borghi 2-yd TD run, Washington State wins it 54-53

Washington State's lowest chance to win was 6 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.

The biggest swing

With 0:01 left in the 4th quarter, Washington State's chance to win went from 24 percent to 99 percent when Washington State scored a touchdown.

The score went from Washington State 48, Oregon State 53 to Washington State 54, Oregon State 53.

The play: Borghi 2-yd TD run, Washington State wins it 54-53.

What happened next

  1. Washington State's next game: L 13-31 at Washington, Nov 29

    6 days later

  2. Oregon State's next game: L 10-24 at Oregon, Nov 30

    7 days later

  3. The teams' next meeting after Nov 23, 2019: Washington State 38, Oregon State 28, Nov 7, 2020

    about 11 months later

Related pages

Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.

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