Regular season ·

Georgia State beat Georgia Southern

Georgia Southern6-424
Georgia State5-430Final
Sat, Nov 28 · Center Parc Stadium, Atlanta, Ga. · Crowd 4,523 · 63°, clearESPN3

Records are after this game.

Georgia State had a 7 percent chance to win in the 4th quarter, by our win chance curve, and won 30-24, November 28, 2020.

How the game turned

Georgia State aheadGeorgia Southern aheadBiggest swingLow: 7%
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Q4 2:54 Georgia State 27, Georgia Southern 24

Georgia State 65% to win

Brown 1-yd TD run, two-point try good, Georgia State goes ahead 27-24

Big moments

  1. 1Q1 5:55 · Georgia State 3, Georgia Southern 0Ruiz 35-yd field goal, Georgia State goes ahead 3-0
  2. 2Q2 14:56 · Georgia State 3, Georgia Southern 7Georgia State's win chance fell from 52% to 44%.Werts 7-yd TD run, Georgia Southern goes ahead 7-3
  3. 3Q2 12:00 · Georgia State 3, Georgia Southern 14Georgia State's win chance fell from 39% to 25%.Wright 63-yd TD run, Georgia Southern leads 14-3
  4. 4Q4 14:56 · Georgia State 13, Georgia Southern 24Georgia State's win chance fell from 24% to 9%.Wright 5-yd TD run, Georgia Southern leads 24-13
  5. 5Q4 2:54 · Georgia State 27, Georgia Southern 24Georgia State's win chance rose from 27% to 65%.Brown 1-yd TD run, two-point try good, Georgia State goes ahead 27-24

Georgia State's lowest chance to win was 7 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.

The biggest swing

With 2:54 left in the 4th quarter, Georgia State's chance to win went from 27 percent to 65 percent when Georgia State scored a touchdown.

The score went from Georgia State 19, Georgia Southern 24 to Georgia State 27, Georgia Southern 24.

The play: Brown 1-yd TD run, two-point try good, Georgia State goes ahead 27-24.

What happened next

  1. Georgia Southern's next game: W 20-3 vs Florida Atlantic, Dec 5

    7 days later

  2. Georgia State's next game: W 39-21 vs Western Kentucky in the Lendingtree Bowl, Dec 26

    28 days later

  3. The teams' next meeting after Nov 28, 2020: Georgia State 21, Georgia Southern 14, Oct 30, 2021

    about 11 months later

Related pages

Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.

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