Regular season ·
Florida State beat North Carolina
Records are after this game. Rankings are the AP poll before it.
Florida State beat No. 5 North Carolina by 3 points.
North Carolina was No. 5 in the AP poll before the game; Florida State was not ranked.
How the game turned
Q4 4:58 Florida State 31, North Carolina 28
Florida State 62% to win
Howell 25-yd TD pass to Brown, cuts it to 31-28
Big moments
- 1Q1 12:40 · Florida State 7, North Carolina 0Florida State's win chance rose from 22% to 33%.Travis 23-yd TD run, Florida State goes ahead 7-0
- 2Q2 3:29 · Florida State 17, North Carolina 0Florida State's win chance rose from 59% to 75%.Travis 1-yd TD run, Florida State leads 17-0
- 3Q4 4:58 · Florida State 31, North Carolina 28Florida State's win chance fell from 92% to 62%.Howell 25-yd TD pass to Brown, cuts it to 31-28
Florida State's lowest chance to win was 17 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.
The biggest swing
With 4:58 left in the 4th quarter, North Carolina's chance to win went from 8 percent to 38 percent when North Carolina scored a touchdown.
The score went from Florida State 31, North Carolina 21 to Florida State 31, North Carolina 28.
The play: Howell 25-yd TD pass to Brown, cuts it to 31-28.
What happened next
North Carolina went from No. 5 to No. 14 in the next AP poll.
Florida State's next game: L 16-48 at Louisville, Oct 24
7 days laterNorth Carolina's next game: W 48-21 vs NC State, Oct 24
7 days laterThe teams' next meeting after Oct 17, 2020: Florida State 35, North Carolina 25, Oct 9, 2021
about 12 months later
Related pages
Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.