Regular season ·

Virginia beat North Carolina

No. 15 North Carolina4-241
Virginia2-444Final
Sat, Oct 31 · Scott Stadium, Charlottesville, Va. · Crowd 1,000 · 46°, clearACC Network

Records are after this game. Rankings are the AP poll before it.

Virginia beat No. 15 North Carolina by 3 points.

North Carolina was No. 15 in the AP poll before the game; Virginia was not ranked.

The announced crowd was 1,000, in the 2020 season.

How the game turned

Virginia aheadNorth Carolina aheadBiggest swingLow: 17%
12345

Q4 2:51 Virginia 44, North Carolina 41

Virginia 65% to win

Williams 3-yd TD run, cuts it to 44-41

Big moments

  1. 1Q1 13:35 · Virginia 0, North Carolina 7Virginia's win chance fell from 31% to 18%.Howell 54-yd TD pass to Brown, North Carolina goes ahead 7-0
  2. 2Q1 4:51 · Virginia 13, North Carolina 10Virginia's win chance rose from 22% to 34%.Armstrong 71-yd TD pass to Simpson, Virginia goes ahead 13-10
  3. 3Q2 10:42 · Virginia 13, North Carolina 20Virginia's win chance fell from 22% to 19%.Howell 76-yd TD pass to Brown, North Carolina goes ahead 20-13
  4. 4Q2 1:14 · Virginia 27, North Carolina 20Virginia's win chance rose from 48% to 57%.Thompson 1-yd TD run, Virginia goes ahead 27-20
  5. 5Q4 2:51 · Virginia 44, North Carolina 41Virginia's win chance fell from 87% to 65%.Williams 3-yd TD run, cuts it to 44-41

Virginia's lowest chance to win was 17 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.

The biggest swing

With 2:51 left in the 4th quarter, North Carolina's chance to win went from 13 percent to 35 percent when North Carolina scored a touchdown.

The score went from Virginia 44, North Carolina 34 to Virginia 44, North Carolina 41.

The play: Williams 3-yd TD run, cuts it to 44-41.

What happened next

  1. North Carolina was No. 15 before the game and out of the next AP poll.

  2. North Carolina's next game: W 56-24 at Duke, Nov 7

    7 days later

  3. Virginia's next game: W 31-17 vs Louisville, Nov 14

    14 days later

  4. The teams' next meeting after Oct 31, 2020: North Carolina 59, Virginia 39, Sep 18, 2021

    about 11 months later

Related pages

Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.

Share: Post on X · Text it ·