Regular season ·
New Mexico beat Fresno State
Records are after this game.
New Mexico had a 4 percent chance to win in the 3rd quarter, by our win chance curve, and won 49-39, December 12, 2020.
How the game turned
Q4 10:20 New Mexico 35, Fresno State 31
New Mexico 59% to win
Jones 10-yd TD run, New Mexico goes ahead 35-31
Big moments
- 1Q1 11:28 · New Mexico 0, Fresno State 7New Mexico's win chance fell from 16% to 10%.Haener 10-yd TD pass to Cropper, Fresno State goes ahead 7-0
- 2Q2 14:54 · New Mexico 7, Fresno State 14New Mexico's win chance fell from 23% to 11%.Haener 16-yd TD pass to Pope, Fresno State goes ahead 14-7
- 3Q2 10:27 · New Mexico 14, Fresno State 17New Mexico's win chance fell from 23% to 18%.Fuller 30-yd field goal, Fresno State goes ahead 17-14
- 4Q3 4:49 · New Mexico 28, Fresno State 31New Mexico's win chance rose from 7% to 19%.Chavez 49-yd TD pass to Kinslow, cuts it to 31-28
- 5Q4 10:20 · New Mexico 35, Fresno State 31New Mexico's win chance rose from 28% to 59%.Jones 10-yd TD run, New Mexico goes ahead 35-31
New Mexico's lowest chance to win was 4 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.
The biggest swing
With 10:20 left in the 4th quarter, New Mexico's chance to win went from 28 percent to 59 percent when New Mexico scored a touchdown.
The score went from New Mexico 28, Fresno State 31 to New Mexico 35, Fresno State 31.
The play: Jones 10-yd TD run, New Mexico goes ahead 35-31.
It was New Mexico's first win over Fresno State since the 1994 season, after 7 straight losses in the series, counted since 1970 in our games data.
What happened next
Fresno State's first game of the 2021 season: W 45-0 vs UConn, Aug 28, 2021
about 9 months laterNew Mexico's first game of the 2021 season: W 27-17 vs Houston Christian, Sep 2, 2021
about 9 months laterThe teams' next meeting after Dec 12, 2020: Fresno State 34, New Mexico 7, Nov 13, 2021
about 11 months later
Related pages
Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.