Mountain West Championship ·

Mountain West Championship

Mountain West Championship
Boise State5-220
No. 25 San José State7-034Final
Sat, Dec 19 · Sam Boyd Stadium, Whitney, Nev. (neutral site) · 55°, clearFOX

Records are after this game. Rankings are the AP poll before it.

No. 25 San José State beat Boise State by 14 points, the Mountain West Championship.

It was played at a neutral site: Sam Boyd Stadium, Whitney, NV.

How the game turned

San José State aheadBoise State aheadBiggest swingLow: 28%
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Q2 8:36 San José State 10, Boise State 3

San José State 68% to win

Bachmeier incomplete to Shakir, turnover on downs

Big moments

  1. 1Q1 8:36 · San José State 7, Boise State 0San José State's win chance rose from 35% to 50%.Starkel 55-yd TD pass to Walker, San José State goes ahead 7-0
  2. 2Q2 8:36 · San José State 10, Boise State 3San José State's win chance rose from 47% to 68%.Bachmeier incomplete to Shakir, turnover on downs
  3. 3Q3 2:48 · San José State 19, Boise State 13San José State's win chance fell from 85% to 69%.Williams return TD, cuts it to 19-13
  4. 4Q4 10:51 · San José State 27, Boise State 20San José State's win chance fell from 92% to 77%.Bachmeier 2-yd TD run, cuts it to 27-20
  5. 5Q4 3:48 · San José State 34, Boise State 20San José State's win chance rose from 77% to 96%.Starkel 1-yd TD pass to Deese, San José State leads 34-20

San José State's lowest chance to win was 28 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.

The biggest swing

With 8:36 left in the 2nd quarter, San José State's chance to win went from 47 percent to 68 percent on a failed fourth down.

The score stayed San José State 10, Boise State 3.

The play: Boise State on 4th down, Bachmeier incomplete to Shakir.

It was San José State's first win over Boise State since 1970 in our games data, after 14 straight losses in the series.

What happened next

  1. San José State's next game: L 13-34 vs Ball State in the Offerpad Arizona Bowl, Dec 31

    12 days later

  2. Boise State's first game of the 2021 season: L 31-36 at UCF, Sep 2, 2021

    about 8 months later

  3. The teams' next meeting after Dec 19, 2020: Boise State 35, San José State 27, Oct 7, 2023

    about 3 years later

Related pages

Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.

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