Regular season ·
Oregon State beat Oregon
Records are after this game.
Oregon State had a 3 percent chance to win with 6:00 left in the 3rd quarter, by our win chance curve, and won 41-38, November 27, 2020.
How the game turned
Q4 0:33 Oregon State 41, Oregon 38
Oregon State 62% to win
Nolan 1-yd TD run, Oregon State goes ahead 41-38
Big moments
- 1Q1 11:52 · Oregon State 0, Oregon 7Oregon State's win chance fell from 18% to 11%.Redd 37-yd TD run, Oregon goes ahead 7-0
- 2Q1 5:21 · Oregon State 7, Oregon 14Oregon State's win chance fell from 24% to 13%.Shough 1-yd TD run, Oregon goes ahead 14-7
- 3Q4 12:23 · Oregon State 34, Oregon 31Oregon State's win chance rose from 20% to 49%.Jefferson 2-yd TD run, two-point try good, Oregon State goes ahead 34-31
- 4Q4 8:27 · Oregon State 34, Oregon 38Oregon State's win chance fell from 53% to 20%.Habibi-Likio 1-yd TD run, Oregon goes ahead 38-34
- 5Q4 0:33 · Oregon State 41, Oregon 38Oregon State's win chance rose from 39% to 62%.Nolan 1-yd TD run, Oregon State goes ahead 41-38
Oregon State's lowest chance to win was 3 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.
How the lead changed
Oregon State took the lead for good with 0:33 left in the 4th quarter, Oregon State 41, Oregon 38.
It was Oregon State's first win over Oregon since the 2016 season, after 3 straight losses in the series, counted since 1970 in our games data.
What happened next
Oregon State's next game: L 24-30 at Utah, Dec 5
8 days laterOregon's next game: L 17-21 at California, Dec 5
8 days laterThe teams' next meeting after Nov 27, 2020: Oregon 38, Oregon State 29, Nov 27, 2021
about 12 months later
Related pages
Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.