Capital One Orange Bowl ·

Capital One Orange Bowl

Capital One Orange Bowl
Texas A&M9-141
North Carolina8-427Final
Sat, Jan 2 · Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Fla. (neutral site) · Crowd 13,737 · 72°, partly cloudyESPN

Records are after this game.

Texas A&M beat North Carolina by 14 points, the Capital One Orange Bowl.

It was played at a neutral site: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL.

How the game turned

Texas A&M aheadNorth Carolina aheadBiggest swingLow: 24%
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Q4 3:44 Texas A&M 34, North Carolina 27

Texas A&M 90% to win

Achane 76-yd TD run, Texas A&M goes ahead 34-27

Big moments

  1. 1Q1 9:11 · Texas A&M 7, North Carolina 0Texas A&M's win chance rose from 76% to 85%.Spiller 9-yd TD run, Texas A&M goes ahead 7-0
  2. 2Q2 4:56 · Texas A&M 10, North Carolina 13Texas A&M's win chance fell from 72% to 68%.Howell 28-yd TD pass to Newsome, North Carolina goes ahead 13-10
  3. 3Q2 0:20 · Texas A&M 17, North Carolina 13Texas A&M's win chance rose from 72% to 77%.Spiller 3-yd TD run, Texas A&M goes ahead 17-13
  4. 4Q3 8:01 · Texas A&M 17, North Carolina 20Texas A&M's win chance fell from 72% to 58%.Howell 10-yd TD pass to Downs, North Carolina goes ahead 20-17
  5. 5Q4 13:51 · Texas A&M 20, North Carolina 27Texas A&M's win chance fell from 63% to 30%.Howell 75-yd TD pass to Downs, North Carolina goes ahead 27-20
  6. 6Q4 10:11 · Texas A&M 27, North Carolina 27Texas A&M's win chance rose from 27% to 62%.Mond 4-yd TD run, ties it 27-27
  7. 7Q4 3:44 · Texas A&M 34, North Carolina 27Texas A&M's win chance rose from 45% to 90%.Achane 76-yd TD run, Texas A&M goes ahead 34-27

Texas A&M's lowest chance to win was 24 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.

The biggest swing

With 3:44 left in the 4th quarter, Texas A&M's chance to win went from 44 percent to 90 percent when Texas A&M scored a touchdown.

The score went from Texas A&M 27, North Carolina 27 to Texas A&M 34, North Carolina 27.

The play: Achane 76-yd TD run, Texas A&M goes ahead 34-27.

What happened next

  1. Texas A&M finished the 2020 season 9-1.

  2. North Carolina finished the 2020 season 8-4.

  3. North Carolina's first game of the 2021 season: L 10-17 at Virginia Tech, Sep 3, 2021

    about 8 months later

  4. Texas A&M's first game of the 2021 season: W 41-10 vs Kent State, Sep 4, 2021

    about 8 months later

Related pages

Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.

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