Regular season ·
Texas A&M beat Alabama
Records are after this game. Rankings are the AP poll before it.
Texas A&M had a 9 percent chance to win with 5:00 left in the 4th quarter, by our win chance curve, and won 41-38, October 9, 2021.
How the game turned
Q4 0:00 Texas A&M 41, Alabama 38
Texas A&M 100% to win
Small 28-yd field goal, Texas A&M wins it 41-38
Big moments
- 1Q1 11:35 · Texas A&M 3, Alabama 0Texas A&M's win chance rose from 13% to 16%.Small 38-yd field goal, Texas A&M goes ahead 3-0
- 2Q1 6:42 · Texas A&M 3, Alabama 7Texas A&M's win chance fell from 20% to 10%.Young 20-yd TD pass to Williams, Alabama goes ahead 7-3
- 3Q1 5:26 · Texas A&M 10, Alabama 7Texas A&M's win chance rose from 11% to 19%.Calzada 27-yd TD pass to Wydermyer, Texas A&M goes ahead 10-7
- 4Q4 5:00 · Texas A&M 31, Alabama 38Texas A&M's win chance fell from 30% to 9%.Young 7-yd TD pass to Williams, two-point try good, Alabama goes ahead 38-31
- 5Q4 3:00 · Texas A&M 38, Alabama 38Texas A&M's win chance rose from 13% to 35%.Calzada 25-yd TD pass to Smith, ties it 38-38
- 6Q4 0:00 · Texas A&M 41, Alabama 38Texas A&M's win chance rose from 68% to 100%.Small 28-yd field goal, Texas A&M wins it 41-38
Texas A&M's lowest chance to win was 9 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.
The biggest swing
With 0:00 left in the 4th quarter, Texas A&M's chance to win went from 68 percent to 99 percent when Texas A&M kicked a field goal.
The score went from Texas A&M 38, Alabama 38 to Texas A&M 41, Alabama 38.
The play: Small 28-yd field goal, Texas A&M wins it 41-38.
It was Texas A&M's first win over Alabama since the 2012 season, after 8 straight losses in the series, counted since 1970 in our games data.
What happened next
Texas A&M's next game: W 35-14 at Missouri, Oct 16
7 days laterAlabama's next game: W 49-9 at Mississippi State, Oct 16
7 days laterThe teams' next meeting after Oct 9, 2021: Alabama 24, Texas A&M 20, Oct 8, 2022
about 12 months later
Related pages
Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.