Regular season ·
Iowa beat Nebraska
Records are after this game. Rankings are the AP poll before it.
Iowa had a 5 percent chance to win in the 3rd quarter, by our win chance curve, and won 28-21, November 26, 2021.
How the game turned
Q2 4:20 Iowa 3, Nebraska 14
Iowa 16% to win
Yant 1-yd TD run, Nebraska leads 14-3
Big moments
- 1Q1 9:18 · Iowa 0, Nebraska 7Iowa's win chance fell from 35% to 33%.Smothers 2-yd TD run, Nebraska goes ahead 7-0
- 2Q1 (no clock) · Iowa 0, Nebraska 7Iowa's win chance fell from 41% to 28%.Padilla incomplete to LaPorta, turnover on downs
- 3Q2 4:20 · Iowa 3, Nebraska 14Iowa's win chance fell from 34% to 16%.Yant 1-yd TD run, Nebraska leads 14-3
- 4Q3 5:54 · Iowa 6, Nebraska 21Iowa's win chance fell from 21% to 5%.Smothers 1-yd TD run, Nebraska leads 21-6
- 5Q4 14:16 · Iowa 16, Nebraska 21Iowa's win chance rose from 7% to 21%.Fisher return TD, blocked, cuts it to 21-16
Iowa's lowest chance to win was 5 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.
The biggest swing
With 4:20 left in the 2nd quarter, Nebraska's chance to win went from 66 percent to 84 percent when Nebraska scored a touchdown.
The score went from Iowa 3, Nebraska 7 to Iowa 3, Nebraska 14.
The play: Yant 1-yd TD run, Nebraska leads 14-3.
What happened next
Iowa's next game: L 3-42 vs Michigan, Dec 4
8 days laterNebraska finished the 2021 season 3-9.
Nebraska's first game of the 2022 season: L 28-31 vs Northwestern, Aug 27, 2022
about 9 months laterThe teams' next meeting after Nov 26, 2021: Nebraska 24, Iowa 17, Nov 25, 2022
about 12 months later
Related pages
Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.