Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl ·

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
No. 13 Pittsburgh11-321
No. 11 Michigan State11-231Final
Thu, Dec 30 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Ga. (neutral site) · Crowd 41,230 · IndoorsESPN

Records are after this game. Rankings are the AP poll before it.

Michigan State had a 7 percent chance to win with 6:48 left in the 3rd quarter, by our win chance curve, and won 31-21, the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl, December 30, 2021.

Michigan State was No. 11 and Pittsburgh No. 13 in the last AP poll before the bowls.

How the game turned

Michigan State aheadPittsburgh aheadBiggest swingLow: 7%
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Q4 2:51 Michigan State 24, Pittsburgh 21

Michigan State 67% to win

Thorne 22-yd TD pass to Reed, two-point try good, Michigan State goes ahead 24-21

Big moments

  1. 1Q1 13:11 · Michigan State 7, Pittsburgh 0Michigan State's win chance rose from 69% to 73%.Thorne 28-yd TD pass to Reed, Michigan State goes ahead 7-0
  2. 2Q1 2:39 · Michigan State 10, Pittsburgh 7Coghlin 36-yd field goal, Michigan State goes ahead 10-7
  3. 3Q2 1:02 · Michigan State 10, Pittsburgh 14Michigan State's win chance fell from 63% to 40%.Beville 4-yd TD pass to Wayne, Pittsburgh goes ahead 14-10
  4. 4Q4 8:06 · Michigan State 16, Pittsburgh 21Michigan State's win chance rose from 10% to 26%.Thorne 15-yd TD pass to Heyward, two-point try fails, cuts it to 21-16
  5. 5Q4 2:51 · Michigan State 24, Pittsburgh 21Michigan State's win chance rose from 20% to 67%.Thorne 22-yd TD pass to Reed, two-point try good, Michigan State goes ahead 24-21

Michigan State's lowest chance to win was 7 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.

The biggest swing

With 2:51 left in the 4th quarter, Michigan State's chance to win went from 20 percent to 67 percent when Michigan State scored a touchdown.

The score went from Michigan State 16, Pittsburgh 21 to Michigan State 24, Pittsburgh 21.

The play: Thorne 22-yd TD pass to Reed, two-point try good, Michigan State goes ahead 24-21.

What happened next

  1. Michigan State finished the 2021 season 11-2, No. 11 in the last AP poll before the bowls.

  2. Pittsburgh finished the 2021 season 11-3, No. 13 in the last AP poll before the bowls.

  3. Pittsburgh's first game of the 2022 season: W 38-31 vs West Virginia, Sep 1, 2022

    about 8 months later

  4. Michigan State's first game of the 2022 season: W 35-13 vs Western Michigan, Sep 2, 2022

    about 8 months later

Related pages

Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.

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