Regular season ·

Mississippi State beat Ole Miss

Mississippi State8-424
No. 20 Ole Miss8-422Final
Thu, Nov 24 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, Oxford, Miss. · Crowd 62,487 · 61°, cloudyESPN

Records are after this game. Rankings are the AP poll before it.

Mississippi State beat No. 20 Ole Miss by 2 points.

Ole Miss was No. 20 in the AP poll before the game; Mississippi State was not ranked.

How the game turned

Mississippi State aheadOle Miss aheadBiggest swingLow: 19%
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Q4 7:58 Mississippi State 24, Ole Miss 16

Mississippi State 81% to win

Rogers 22-yd TD pass to Thomas, Mississippi State leads 24-16

Big moments

  1. 1Q1 12:16 · Mississippi State 0, Ole Miss 3Cruz 32-yd field goal, Ole Miss goes ahead 3-0
  2. 2Q1 8:17 · Mississippi State 7, Ole Miss 3Mississippi State's win chance rose from 46% to 55%.Marks 1-yd TD run, Mississippi State goes ahead 7-3
  3. 3Q2 12:04 · Mississippi State 7, Ole Miss 9Mississippi State's win chance fell from 50% to 47%.Cruz 49-yd field goal, Ole Miss goes ahead 9-7
  4. 4Q4 13:46 · Mississippi State 17, Ole Miss 16Biscardi 34-yd field goal, Mississippi State goes ahead 17-16
  5. 5Q4 7:58 · Mississippi State 24, Ole Miss 16Mississippi State's win chance rose from 57% to 81%.Rogers 22-yd TD pass to Thomas, Mississippi State leads 24-16

Mississippi State's lowest chance to win was 19 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.

The biggest swing

With 7:58 left in the 4th quarter, Mississippi State's chance to win went from 57 percent to 81 percent when Mississippi State scored a touchdown.

The score went from Mississippi State 17, Ole Miss 16 to Mississippi State 24, Ole Miss 16.

The play: Rogers 22-yd TD pass to Thomas, Mississippi State leads 24-16.

What happened next

  1. Ole Miss's next game: L 25-42 vs Texas Tech in the Taxact Texas Bowl, Dec 28

    34 days later

  2. Mississippi State's next game: W 19-10 vs Illinois in the Reliaquest Bowl, Jan 2

    39 days later

  3. The teams' next meeting after Nov 24, 2022: Ole Miss 17, Mississippi State 7, Nov 23, 2023

    about 12 months later

Related pages

Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.

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